It's shaping up to be a tough period for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company (TADAWUL:1111), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Unfortunately, Saudi Tadawul Group Holding delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of ر.س292m were 13% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of ر.س0.40 missed estimates by 54%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding from five analysts is for revenues of ر.س1.48b in 2027. If met, it would imply a huge 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 70% to ر.س4.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ر.س1.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س4.43 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ر.س149, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Saudi Tadawul Group Holding at ر.س178 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س114. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Saudi Tadawul Group Holding to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ر.س149, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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