Elbit Systems (TASE:ESLT) is back in focus after securing a $235 million artillery contract in Europe and roughly $200 million in airborne ISTAR and training deals with an Asia-Pacific buyer.
The recent contract wins appear to have fed into momentum in Elbit Systems' shares, which now trade at ₪2,425.5 after a 30.25% year to date share price return and a 56.30% total shareholder return over the past year, highlighting recent short and longer term share price performance as investors reassess growth prospects and risk.
Scan other defense and security contractors showing similar contract momentum with our curated list of 228 resilient stocks with low risk scores while you assess what these new deals mean for Elbit Systems.
The question for Elbit Systems now sits between business and mood. Are investors paying up for lasting contract depth, or for a short burst of optimism around the recent share price jump?
Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued
Analysts following Elbit Systems see fair value around ₪2,965 per share, compared with the latest close at ₪2,425.5. As a result, the current contract flow is being weighed against what they view as longer term earnings power under a discount rate of 9.59%.
Record $25.2 billion backlog, with close to 70 percent from customers outside Israel and multi year contracts such as the 8 year, 2.3 billion dollar strategic program, provides high visibility on sustained top line growth and supports operating leverage and earnings compounding.
See why 6 investors see Elbit Systems as 18% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of ₪2,965 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, Elbit Systems faces two clear pressure points: a possible cooling in global defense budgets and execution risk on large multi year programs that could strain profitability.
Find out about the key risks to this Elbit Systems narrative.
Another View: Elbit Systems Through a Cash Flow Lens
The story looks very different when Elbit Systems is valued using the SWS DCF model. On this view, ESLT at ₪2,425.5 trades well above an estimated future cash flow value of ₪1,026.58, which points to an overvalued result and raises a simple question: Are you comfortable paying today for cash flows the model struggles to justify?
That split between earnings based upside and cash flow based caution is exactly why some investors stress test ESLT against more than one framework before committing fresh capital. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Elbit Systems for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 191 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
If the split between optimism and caution around Elbit Systems feels sharp, use that as a prompt to move fast and test the numbers yourself. To see what is driving the brighter side of the story, start with the 2 key rewards.
Ready For Your Next Idea After Elbit Systems?
Use this moment to widen your opportunity set. While Elbit Systems grabs headlines, the screener can surface different risk, income, and value angles you might otherwise miss.
- Explore potential mispricing by scanning a curated pool of companies that combine quality with room for a re rating through the 191 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Find income ideas by reviewing companies that pair higher yields with balance sheets built to support regular payouts using the 226 dividend fortresses.
- Limit downside risk by shortlisting businesses that score strongly on resilience and financial strength through the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (203 results).
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