The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Fed's interest rate meeting ended and announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.75% to 4% range. On the Hong Kong side, HSBC announced today that the Prime Rate (P) remains unchanged at the current level of 5%. Cao Deming, chief vice president of Meridian Mortgage Referral, said that the defensive interest rate hike made by the Federal Reserve last month remains to be seen to be effective in controlling inflation, so it is currently on hold. However, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased 3.7% year on year in September, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year on year. Both were higher than market expectations. In addition, the geopolitical situation is still variable. If future inflation data remains high, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in December to suppress inflation.
Regarding interest rates in Hong Kong, Cho Tak Ming pointed out that the current aggregate balance of the Hong Kong banking system remains at about HK$54 billion. Coupled with the recent weak demand for Hong Kong dollar loans, the one-month interbank interest rate (HIBOR) remained below 3% in October. Since capital costs have not yet been under much pressure, the Bank of Hong Kong still does not need to raise the best preferential interest rate (P) for the time being. Even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in December in response to inflation, it is expected that the Bank of Hong Kong may only fine-tune P to a limited extent.
Cao Deming added that today's one-month interbank interest rate (HIBOR) report was 2.71%, and it is expected to hover around the 2% to 3% range in the short term. Based on the current calculation of H plan H +1.3%, H owners will still need to supply the building at a capped interest rate of 3.25% in the short term. However, the 2.73% fixed plan introduced by large banks earlier this year was very popular. At one point, the selection ratio climbed to more than 30%, a record high of more than 8 years, and lowered the overall interest rate level for newly built mortgages. According to the latest data from Meridian Mortgage Referral, the Meridian Mortgage Interest Rate Index (MMI), which reflects the actual interest rate for new mortgages, was last reported at 3.18% in September and has remained below 3.25% for 8 consecutive months.
Regarding the current mortgage options, Cao Deming said that although the two large banks recently fine-tuned the fixed interest rate to 2.93%, it is still 32 pips lower than the 3.25% maximum interest rate for H; in addition, another large bank launched a first 2 or 3 year P then H mortgage plan, and the actual mortgage rate is lower to 2.68% (P -2.32%). While future interest rates are still variable and interest rates are difficult to fall sharply in the short term, the interest rate savings effect of these two types of plans is remarkable. They are expected to attract more buyers to choose them, and are expected to drive MMI to decline further during the year.