According to Woofun AI, financial data agency Glassnode released its weekly report on the 28th, indicating that Bitcoin (BTC) faced significant resistance at the $85,000 mark, and the market continued the fluctuating pattern of range-bound fluctuations.
Despite signs of weakening demand for ETFs, holders' sell-offs due to stop losses have declined, overall volatility has declined sharply, and the market has entered a critical game period with low volatility.
The sluggish flow of ETFs and changes in the cost structure of the spot market form the core background of the current price standoff. The US Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded an inflow of about 653 million US dollars on October 19, but most of the funds immediately flowed out. 540 million US dollars were withdrawn on the 22nd alone, resulting in a net capital inflow of only 67 million US dollars in the last two weeks. Trading activity is also weak. Since May, the average daily turnover of these ETFs has been around $1.3 billion, while the rolling average daily volume as of the 23rd has dropped to about $700 million.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current BTC price is slightly below the average holding cost of spot ETFs (about $81,500), and the increase in demand brought about by ETFs is almost negligible at this level. The “real market average”, which reflects the average cost of holding positions for active investors, is around $77,900. Despite two significant price declines in October, it has not fallen below this level. BTC rose above $87,000 twice in late September and early October, but then fell back. Currently, about 4.3% of BTC is between $84,000 and $85,000, and the price has been pulled back to this range four times since this year. Since the September rebound, the daily closing price of BTC has been above $85,000 for only 5 days, and the longest record of being above this level for 3 days in a row. If the daily closing price continues above this level, the price is expected to shift from a resistance level to a support level.
The fragmentation of holders' behavior has further exacerbated the complexity of the market, where long-term selling pressure coexists with short-term support. Long-term holders who have held it for more than 155 days hold about 4 million BTC, and most of their purchases are between $85,000 and $118,000, and more than half of the purchase prices are higher than the current price. Glassnode believes that once the price recovers to around $85,000, there may be a sell-off to reach break-even. In contrast, the average buying price for short-term holders is around $75,800, concentrated around $77,000, and there are also many positions around $64,000. These prices can easily support buying.
On Binance's spot order board, around $42 million in buy orders are concentrated between $78,000 and $79,000 and are considered a potential buying area. Since August, holders' actual losses when prices fell have been shrinking: during the low price phase in August, actual daily losses were about $630 million higher than actual profits; while on October 24, when prices fell sharply, the maximum daily net actual loss was only about $27 million. This indicates that the number of holders opting for a stop loss is declining.
However, actual profit and loss are calculated based on changes in positions. Individual accounts transferred BTC between wallets on October 22, which led to a sharp rise in profit and loss values. Excluding such transactions, the actual daily profit this week was about US$260 million, which is only half of the week of the highest price in September. If actual losses rise again the next time it falls, this indicates that more sellers are entering the market.
The comparison of macro volatility and changes in the derivatives market revealed deeper structural changes. The daily price volatility over the past month has been reduced to about 25% after annualization, close to the summer of 2023; since 2015, the period of volatility below this level only accounts for about 5% of the total period. The current trend is quite similar to 2023, where volatility gradually declined after experiencing a strong rebound after a cyclical low and the altcoin market overheated. This year, BTC began to rebound after a low in June, and price fluctuations stabilized after the altcoin market peaked in early October. Glassnode originally anticipated that the Fed's interest rate decision in a low volatility environment might trigger the next round of fluctuations, but at the 28th meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Meanwhile, the “HIP-3” perpetual futures market for stocks, indices, and commodities launched on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid is active. The average daily turnover in the last week was about US$2.6 billion, exceeding the average daily turnover of BTC perpetual futures on the exchange (about US$2.4 billion). The volume of HIP-3 was more than three times that of BTC perpetual futures in early August, but after the “short squeeze” occurred, it fell to about half later in the same month, and then rebounded again. Among them, the most frequently traded products include SK Hynix (SKHY.US) stocks, the S&P 500 index, the technology stock index, and crude oil. If BTC perpetual futures trading volume continues to be stable and trading volume of stocks and commodities continues to grow, speculative capital may still prefer the stock market.