According to Woofun AI, asset management company Bitwise raised its long-term valuation forecast for Bitcoin drastically, setting a target price of $1.6 million for 2036. This adjustment marks a significant increase in the agency's confidence in BTC's potential as digital gold, and its core logic is based on Bitcoin's ability to successfully erode traditional precious metals market share. Compared to the previous target of $1.3 million, this increase reflects Bitwise's latest judgment on the macro environment and the evolution of asset attributes, believing that the current market position of Bitcoin is superior to any period in history.
The Total Serviceable Market (TAM) model used by Bitwise is the core tool used to derive this valuation. The model first defines each market segment where Bitcoin is likely to penetrate, then applies specific penetration assumptions, and finally performs a reverse calculation based on a fixed total supply of 21 million units.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, out of Bitwise's estimated total market of $33.6 trillion, the segment used for value storage is worth as much as $27.5 trillion, accounting for 82% of the total estimated value in 2036.
This means that the target price of $1.6 million is extremely dependent on Bitcoin's ability to seize a quarter of the stored value market that competes with gold. Specifically, Bitwise predicts that the combined market size of gold and Bitcoin will expand from the current $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. In the most optimistic scenario, Bitcoin would account for 25% of that share. In contrast, based on the benchmark price of $83,557, the total market value of 20.1 million Bitcoins in circulation is about $1.7 trillion, accounting for only about 5% of the current $31.1 trillion market. The total value of the remaining six markets, including institutional portfolios and national fiscal reserves, in the model is only $6 trillion, further highlighting the weight of the stored value market in valuation.
Notably, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is undergoing structural changes. On September 11, the 90-day correlation value between the two hit a record of 0.58, showing an increasingly close connection. The Bitwise report notes that this correlation is expected to continue and deepen as the market's understanding of Bitcoin's storage function deepens. The model predicts that the correlation between the two will rise to 0.21 over the next ten years, while the average correlation for the previous 10 years was only 0.11 — the former was a 90-day rolling value, and the latter was a ten-year daily average; the two had a different caliber.
However, there are also risks. In the most pessimistic hypothesis, if Bitcoin's share of the stored value market falls to 2.5% and the share of other markets is zero, the price of BTC in 2036 would be $130,686, and the corresponding annualized yield would be 4.6%.
Furthermore, mathematical advances brought about by quantum computing and artificial intelligence, and reversal of regulatory policies are seen as major risks. Despite Bitwise's forecast of an annualized yield of 34.3%, which is far higher than J.P. Morgan's 10% forecast, Jim Clymore still favors gold as a safe-haven tool this month. Bitcoin is currently trading at $79,902, down 1.12% in 24 hours.
Looking at long-term trends, the biggest variable in Bitcoin's valuation model is the extent to which gold functions are transferred to digital assets. Bitwise raised its 10-year price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, not only a correction to price expectations, but also a bet to redefine the asset class.
If Bitcoin fails to achieve the expected penetration in the $27.5 trillion stored value market, its valuation logic will face fundamental challenges. This disagreement also reflects different inter-agency understandings of Bitcoin's ultimate form: as a standalone high-growth asset or as a digital replacement for gold. Over the next decade, the evolution of correlation coefficients will be a key indicator for validating this hypothesis.