According to Woofun AI, the “Bitcoin Treasury” business model that Strategy (MSTR.US) relies on for survival is being severely examined by the traditional financial benchmark system, and its legitimacy in global indices is directly challenged by MSCI's new regulations. This listed company, famous for storing bitcoins with high leverage, has been listed as a key target for review by international indexing giant MSCI due to its lack of substantial operating business. Although Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is trying to mitigate potential shocks, market concerns are spreading, because once it loses its position as an index constituent, it will not only mean the withdrawal of billions of dollars of passive capital, but may also cut off the lifeblood of continuing to fund Bitcoin through the capital market.
This incident has gone beyond simple individual stock fluctuations and has become a key litmus test for digital asset companies seeking a living space under the traditional financial framework.
The time window is rapidly narrowing, and November 11 will be a key point in deciding Strategy's fate. At that time, MSCI will announce the final list of companies affected by the new regulations. If the ruling is ruled out, the relevant adjustments will officially take effect after the US stock market closes on November 30, triggering a chain market reaction. J.P. Morgan's 2025 estimates reveal the magnitude of the potential liquidity shock: a wave of passive sell-offs on the MSCI index alone could be as high as $2.8 billion. Strategy calculated in response to the consultation that the MSCI Global Investable Market Index linked fund holds approximately 13 million shares, accounting for 3.1% of the basic share capital, which is equivalent to about 60% of its 30-day average daily turnover.
However, this figure is only the tip of the iceberg. If other mainstream index vendors follow up and adopt similar exclusion measures, the total cumulative passive sell-off may rise further to US$8.8 billion. Capital outflows of this magnitude are not theoretical deductions, but are based on the mechanical rule that tracking funds must forcibly adjust their positions according to weight. For Strategy, this is not only a short-term pressure on stock prices, but also a sharp shock in the liquidity base of its market. Any attempt to maintain high valuations through the secondary market will be vulnerable in the face of the collective withdrawal of passive capital.
While external pressure is intensifying, Strategy's internal governance structure is also being adjusted simultaneously in an attempt to stabilize shareholder confidence by optimizing the capital structure. On October 28, the company announced that, based on the preliminary voting results, shareholders have approved constitutional amendments to allow the implementation of a daily dividend payment mechanism for its four series of preferred shares.
This revised provision will be implemented first on the STRC series preferred shares on November 1 after the filing takes effect, and it is planned to gradually cover the STRF, STRK, and STRD series on January 1, 2027.
However, this optimization of internal financial arrangements does not directly influence MSCI's index retention ruling. The new regulations passed by MSCI on October 15 and effective from the close of trading on November 30 have established a strict substantive asset review system: first, the company is screened to see if it has operating assets. Those that fail are required to undergo five financial ratio tests. If at least four items do not meet the standards, it will trigger a determination that it is ineligible for inclusion. Existing constituent stocks will only face formal exclusion if they have not passed the screening during the annual financial reporting period for the last two consecutive fiscal years. At the same time, the interim financial report may also be taken into comprehensive consideration.
This means that even if Strategy improves its cash flow appearance through preferred stock reform, it will not escape the fate of being eliminated if it fails to convince MSCI on the core definition of “substantial operation.”
It is worth noting that this index cleanup against the “Bitcoin Treasury” model was not an isolated incident; its spread is expanding. In addition to Strategy, a number of listed companies that have adopted similar strategies have been included in MSCI's watch or potential exclusion lists. Japanese listed companies Metaplanet and Upexi (UPXI.US) have been clearly listed as potential exclusion targets, while Sharplink (SBET.US), Ton Strategy Company (TONX.US), Solana Company (HSDT.US), and DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV.US) are also on the watch list for possible exclusion.
This phenomenon shows that MSCI's new regulations aim to systematically clean up pure investment carriers that lack traditional operating assets, regardless of whether the underlying asset is Bitcoin or other cryptographic tokens. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the common characteristic of these companies is that they rely heavily on equity financing to buy crypto assets rather than generating cash flow through their main business.
This homogenized business model makes them collectively vulnerable when faced with the same set of index screening criteria. Once Strategy is eliminated, other similar companies are likely to face the same scrutiny pressure, or even trigger a cross-market joint sell-off, and the valuation logic of the entire “Bitcoin Treasury” sector will face restructuring.
The deep impact of the exclusion of the index far exceeds short-term stock price fluctuations, and it will directly impact Strategy's long-term financing capacity and share price premium base. Brian Dobson, director of disruptive technology research at Clear Street, pointed out that being included in the mainstream index is a key pillar in maintaining demand for stock purchases because it can provide continuous passive capital inflows, including weekly 401 (k) retirement pension plans for millions of ordinary investors and the allocation of various mutual funds. Once removed from the index, tracking funds must be forced to sell their positions, causing heavy short-term selling pressure.
What's more fatal is that Strategy has historically relied on issuing additional common shares, issuing preferred shares (such as STRC and STRK), and convertible bonds for the purchase of Bitcoin. Crypto analysis agency ZEROBASE emphasized that passive investment capital has become a key cornerstone supporting the buying of such concept stocks. As market concerns about the risk of equity dilution intensified, Strategy's early stock premium rate had narrowed drastically and was forced to switch to preferred stock financing, but the market's enthusiasm for subscribing to these preferred securities also waned.
Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, admits that digital asset treasury companies are not regarded as physical operators from a traditional financial perspective, and the difficulty of continuing to sell shares to maintain a flywheel in the future has increased dramatically. Strategy has suffered a severe loss of trust when it was not selected for the S&P 500 index. If removed by MSCI this time, its financing channels will be further narrowed, and it may even fall into a vicious cycle of “unable to finance → unable to buy coins → declining share of assets → further decline in valuation”.
Faced with concerns from the outside world, management's response fell at the level of definitions and procedures. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on October 18, Michael Saylor claimed that the amount of capital actually controlled by MSCI was “insignificant” and accused the agency of “imposing biased values on digital assets,” characterizing the potential resolution as a “value judgment” that sets a bad precedent; at the same time, he said “there are no special expectations” about whether it will eventually be removed, and he hopes MSCI will reconsider this direction.
However, this downsizing strategy is difficult to conceal structural risks. The implementation of the final adjustments on November 30, 2026 will make it completely clear whether Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies will be removed from the widely tracked global stock benchmark index. This is not only about the fate of a company, but also a landmark event about whether digital asset companies can obtain long-term living space within the framework of traditional financial legality. If the ruling is unfavorable, it will confirm the traditional financial system's exclusion of pure crypto asset holders and force the industry to reconsider the integration boundary between decentralized assets and centralized capital markets. Conversely, if retained, it could open a gap for more crypto-native companies to enter the mainstream index in the future. In any case, the November 11 announcement will be a watershed, determining Bitcoin's allocation path and valuation anchor in institutional portfolios over the next few years.