According to Woofun AI, the US virtual currency investment company Bitwise released the “2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” report on October 28. The core conclusion is that the price of Bitcoin will reach $1.95 million 9,766 by 2036.
This basic scenario forecast means that Bitcoin will continue to rise at a CAGR of 34.3% compared to the September 30 benchmark price of $80,557. This growth rate is a significant increase from the 28.3% forecast in the previous version. Bitwise attributes this to the expansion of the value storage market and institutional investment market, as well as the strengthening of the market's confidence in long-term trends. The report asserts that in the ten years leading up to 2036, Bitcoin is expected to become the highest type of return among all types of institutional investment assets.
It is worth noting that this forecast not only revises the previous target price of $1.3 million in 2035, but also outlines the path of Bitcoin's share increase in institutional asset allocation through a refined market penetration model. The logic behind this is a structural increase in the weight of physical assets in investment portfolios in the context of global debt expansion.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Bitwise uses a total accessible market model. Assuming that the size of the value storage market composed of gold and bitcoin will expand from the current 31.1 trillion US dollars to 109.8 trillion US dollars, of which Bitcoin will account for 25% under the basic scenario.
Furthermore, the report made detailed predictions on the penetration rate of a total of 7 markets, including institutional investors' investment assets (accounting for 1%) and emerging market currencies (accounting for 1%). Under the pessimistic scenario, the price of Bitcoin in 2036 was only $130,686, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%; under the optimistic scenario, the price could reach $3.66 million 7,911, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.0%. According to Boston Consulting Group estimates, the total assets of institutional investors are about $147 trillion. If 1% to 5% of them were to allocate Bitcoin, it would generate a purchase demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin's annual new issuance volume is only about $14 billion, and there is a huge gap between supply and demand.
In the US, Bitcoin spot ETFs that have been listed for less than three years have reached $108 billion in assets under management. On the supply side, out of the 21 million circulation cap, 20.1 million copies (accounting for 95.7%) are already in circulation. The annual supply growth rate is only 0.8%. It is expected to drop to 0.4% in 2028 and fall further to 0.2% in 2032, far lower than the 2% increase in gold supply. Macro-debt pressure is also a key driving force. The total US federal debt reached 40.2 trillion US dollars, interest expenses on debt reached 1.36 trillion US dollars, and the fiscal deficit for the 2026 fiscal year reached 2.0 trillion US dollars, forcing the government to respond by issuing additional currency, thereby increasing the allocation value of real assets such as Bitcoin.
Price cycle fluctuations and asset maturity indicators are also worth watching. After hitting an all-time high of $120,000 6,080 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin fell to $58,717 on June 30, 2026, a decrease of 53.4%. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced cyclical declines of 86%, 84%, and 77%. If the low of June 30 is maintained, this will be the smallest decline in history and is seen as a sign of the gradual maturity of the asset. The report indicates that the 10-year volatility is 27.8% and is expected to continue to decline. In terms of correlation, Bitcoin's 10-year average correlation with US stocks was 0.43, and the 90-day correlation coefficient with gold reached an all-time high of 0.58 on September 11. As a horizontal comparison, the report also cites the average long-term return assumptions of the four institutions J.P. Morgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Pioneer: 6.7% for US stocks, 5.5% for gold, 5.0% for US bonds, and 10.8% for private equity. There is a significant gap with Bitcoin's 34.3% annualized return assumption, showing its unique risk-return characteristics.
Long-term risk factors mainly focus on technical challenges and regulatory uncertainty. The potential technological threats posed by quantum computers and artificial intelligence cannot be ignored, and changes in the regulatory environment have an even more immediate impact. After the US “Market Structure Act” — the “Clarity Act” was passed in the House of Representatives in July 2025, the legislative process stalled on September 15, 2026 with 50 votes in favor and 49 against in the Senate procedural vote, failing to reach the 60 vote threshold required to end the debate; disputes over ethical provisions and opposition from community banks were the main obstacles, and partisan differences posed new risks to the future of the regulatory field.
This legislative impasse may lead to a policy vacuum or fragmented regulation, which in turn affects the pace of entry of institutional investors. Despite these uncertainties, Bitwise maintains that Bitcoin's long-term value logic as a non-sovereign store of value remains stable as the scale of global debt continues to expand and the traditional financial system's demand for diversified asset allocation increases. Whether Bitcoin can truly be integrated into mainstream institutional portfolios over the next ten years will depend on the clarity of the regulatory framework and the security of the technical infrastructure. Following the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the market is once again facing a critical turning point. The results will profoundly affect the pricing system and liquidity structure of global digital assets.