According to Woofun AI, Hyperliquid is undergoing a profound restructuring of valuation logic, and its core driving force has moved from a single cryptocurrency market cycle to competition for share in traditional global financial markets. As the share of non-cryptographic transactions broke through a critical threshold, the target price for HYPE tokens was re-calculated to $128. This forecast is based on the benchmark scenario where the platform can continue to expand the scale of non-cryptographic businesses and maintain specific processing rates. It should be clarified that the estimates in this article are based on a third-party interactive valuation model (HYPE valuation model) written in the first person, and the public channels have not seen its signatory agency; the “we” below all refer to the author of this model. The target price and scenario assumptions represent the views of the original author and do not constitute a conclusion of this paper.
Judging from the evolution of the transaction structure, the weight of the non-crypto category in Hyperliquid's total trading volume is rapidly rising. In October, non-cryptographic transactions accounted for 30% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume; on October 27, they accounted for 40% in a single day, peaking at 51% in July.
Behind this change is the huge volume support of the global traditional financial market. The market size was 740 trillion US dollars in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of about 6%, and is expected to reach 934 trillion US dollars in 2029. If Hyperliquid can take 1% of this market share in 2029, corresponding to $9.3 trillion in trading volume, which is equivalent to 3.3 times Hyperliquid's current total trading volume, showing the potential amplification effect of traditional financial services on the platform's scale.
In the benchmark scenario, we set that by 2029, the volume of cryptocurrency transactions will triple, while Hyperliquid will have a 3% share in traditional global financial markets, and the comprehensive processing rate will remain at 0.006%.
Additionally, USDC yields fell back to 3.6%, and HIP-4 predicted that the market would bring in $100 million in revenue. Under this framework, revenue will grow from the current total revenue of US$944 million (including transaction fees, USDC interest, etc., of which transaction fees are approximately US$781 million per annum) to US$4.91 billion in 2029.
This growth path depends not only on the recovery of the crypto market, but more importantly, on incremental revenue from non-crypto businesses. Among them, non-cryptographic fees, USDC interest, and HIP-4 revenue make up a major portion of the new revenue.
Based on the above revenue forecast, we used a 20% discount rate for valuation modeling. The 3% share here is the benchmark scenario, and the revenue multiplier is in two tiers: 30x and 40x; based on the 890 million HYPE units remaining after the repurchase, the target price for HYPE is $128 under the 40x revenue multiplier. In an optimistic scenario, with 5% market share and a 40x multiplier, the corresponding unit price could reach $165.
Notably, compared to our March report, even though the token base used in this calculation is almost three times the original, the optimistic target price is still higher than the previous price of $124, which indicates that the improvement in business fundamentals is enough to offset the dilution pressure brought about by the increase in token supply.
In-depth analysis of the drivers reveals that the influence of seizing traditional financial market share has surpassed the cryptocurrency bull and bear cycle. Calculated by a 25x multiplier: A threefold increase in crypto trading volume can only drive HYPE's unit price by about $30; while increasing market share from 1% to 5%, it can drive the unit price to increase by about $48.
This comparison clearly reveals the shift in valuation focus, that is, from relying on cyclical fluctuations in the crypto market to relying on the increased penetration rate of platforms in global financial markets, which provides a growth engine with more certainty and scale effects.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the main risk comes from competitive pressure on processing fees. If fees for traditional financial operations fall to the CME (CME.US) level, the target price for the benchmark scenario would fall back to $66 under a 30x multiplier.
This risk point is critical because Hyperliquid's current fees for non-cryptographic businesses are much higher than traditional exchanges, and if future competition increases and rates decline, it will directly reduce profit margins and lower valuation limits. As a result, the sustainability of the fee rate is one of the most sensitive variables in the model, and any close to the CME level will put significant downward pressure on HYPE prices.
Hyperliquid's business transformation marks its leap from the crypto vertical to a full range of trading platforms. Previously, traders traded on Hyperliquid during the escalation of the US-Iran situation and events related to the Tesla Roadster press conference, betting on market trends, which showed external users' recognition of its infrastructure. HIP-3 changed this, allowing individual stocks, indices, commodities, and forex to share the same margin account as Bitcoin perpetual contracts. According to statistics on changes in Hyperliquid's monthly trading volume from September 2025 to October 2026, the share of non-crypto trading volume climbed from 0 in September 2025 to 51% in July 2026, then stabilized at around one-third; on October 27, 40% of the platform's total daily trading volume of 7.2 billion US dollars came from non-cryptographic categories, and individual stocks are currently the largest non-crypto trading types.
Despite rapid growth in the non-crypto business, it's important to recognize that Hyperliquid has yet to experience a massive crypto bull market. We collected data from Binance's public API since 2019 and aggregated its spot, USDT-based, and coin-based contract trading volume. Binance's all-time peak in trading volume came in May 2021, reaching $4.3 trillion, before Hyperliquid went live. Since the launch of Hyperliquid, the market experienced a total of three trading volume peaks: March 2024, November-December 2024 (approximately $3.7 trillion per month), and October 2025 ($3.5 trillion).
However, during most of the market's highs, Hyperliquid was still small. During the hot 2024 market period, its crypto futures trading volume only accounted for 2%-6% of Binance; it wasn't until February 2025 that it accounted for more than 10%. Currently, Binance's cryptocurrency trading volume is only 38% of its December 2024 high, and spot volume is only 16% of its peak in May 2021. As a result, Hyperliquid's current annualized transaction revenue of $781 million is at the bottom of the cycle. Binance's peak monthly trading volume is 2.4-3 times the current level, which is the origin of our benchmark assumption that “crypto trading volume will triple in 2029.”
A detailed explanation of the rate structure and revenue sources further supports revenue forecasting. After deducting rebates and discounts, the agreement can retain approximately 0.037% of the crypto perpetual contract transaction volume. Varieties under HIP-3 are in a growth pattern, leaving only 0.0037% of the agreement. In contrast, CME's stock index business conversion revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was only 0.0004% of the nominal transaction amount, and traditional financial fees after Hyperliquid's discount were still about 9 times that of CME. Competition is already at hand. Binance launched 229 TradFi perpetual contracts this year, with a daily trading volume of about $13.4 billion; Hyperliquid is only $2.3 billion.
Our benchmark scenario assumes that from 2027, the comprehensive processing rate for non-cryptographic businesses is 0.006%. The composition of this rate is: about 7% of the non-cryptographic transaction volume is switched to the regular rate (0.037% agreement is retained), and the rest of the transaction volume continues to grow. Total revenue will grow 5.2 times to $49.1 billion. Of the additional revenue increase of $3.97 billion, nearly two-thirds will come from outside of crypto transactions: $1.65 billion from non-crypto fees, $756 million from USDC interest, and $100 million from HIP-4. Cryptocurrency transaction revenue assumes that transaction volume will triple ($5.9 trillion) from $1.98 trillion per year by 2029, keeping the current rate of 0.037% unchanged.
Non-cryptographic transaction revenue is based on the global market size of $740 trillion in 2025. At a rate of 6% annual growth, the market size will reach $934 trillion by 2029. According to the AQAv2 rules, 90% of the USDC reserve earnings on the Hyperliquid platform go to the aid fund, and the first 30-day dividend of $14.58 million is equivalent to an annualized annual income of US$177 million, corresponding to this year's US$5.1 billion reserve and 3.9% yield. We assume that the yield will fall back to 3.6% by 2029. The HIP-4 prediction market went live in May, and we estimate this business will bring in $100 million in revenue by 2029.
Sensitivity analysis and findings showed that valuations are highly sensitive to multiple variables. Using a 20% discount rate, we converted 2029 revenue to current value, 2029 revenue of $4.91 billion, current value of $2.84 billion. Calculation scale: The total supply is 998.8 million, minus the 48.3 million already held by the aid fund, minus the tokens destroyed using 99% revenue to buy back and destroy in 2027-2029. The repurchase price will gradually rise from the current $77 to the target price for 2029 under the corresponding scenario; the higher the multiplier, the less tokens the buyback consumes: approximately 87 million tokens are destroyed under the 25x multiplier, 76 million at 30x, and 61 million at 40x.
Here's an example of an estimate: 3% market share, 40x multiplier. 2029: Crypto transaction revenue of $2.2 billion ($5.94 trillion × 0.037%), non-crypto transaction revenue of $1.68 billion (3% of the $934 trillion market, or 28 trillion × 0.006%), USDC interest of $935 million (28.9 billion reserves × 3.6% × 90%, assuming the size of reserves expands simultaneously with trading volume), HIP-4 contributed $100 million, totaling $49.1 billion. 20% off for three years (divided by 1.728), current value of $2.84 billion. A 40x valuation corresponds to a fully diluted market value of $113.8 billion.
Under this multiplier, approximately 61 million HYPE units were destroyed with a buyback in 2029, leaving 890 million units, at a unit price of $128. HYPE pricing estimates: Assuming that the volume of crypto transactions reaches 3 times the current level, under a 40 times revenue valuation, only 0.5% of the global market share is needed to support the $81 price. The current price of $77 corresponds to the pricing expectations: a 0.5% share would require a 38x revenue multiplier, a 3% share would require 23x, a 5% share would require 18x, and a 10% share would only cost about 10x. CME's price-earnings ratio is 25 times, ICE (ICE.US) is 23 times; the 40x revenue multiplier is about 1.6 to 1.7 times the two. The premium comes from the growth rate of non-cryptographic businesses and 99% of revenue arrangements for repurchase and destruction.
In other words, the current pricing of the market roughly corresponds to the market share of 2%-3% under the valuation level of traditional exchanges. Under the 25x revenue valuation assumption, the volume of crypto transactions tripled, and the unit price of HYPE increased by about $30; the share increased from 1% to 5%, and the unit price increased by about $48. Even if the crypto trading volume remains the same, to support the $77 price, it would be necessary to gain 5% of the market share under a 25x multiplier.
When HYPE was priced at $37 in March, we used 20 times the 2028 revenue multiplier to estimate four scenarios: $60 for the pessimistic scenario (0.01% of the average 1.74 trillion market), $72 (0.10%) for the benchmark scenario, $124 (0.50%) for the optimistic scenario, and $190 (1.00%) for the extreme optimistic scenario, corresponding to the 2028 revenue range of $1.4 billion to $4.6 billion. Seven months later, HIP-3's annual transaction volume reached $870 billion, surpassing the 0.10% share of the benchmark scenario at the time of $640 billion, and about a quarter of the optimistic target.
If you follow the earlier version and only value in circulating tokens, the unit price for the benchmark scenario is approximately $280, not $98. Another core parameter of this reduction is the processing fee: in March, HIP-3 was assumed to share 0.05% of the agreement, and the current model took 0.006%. The pessimistic scenario estimate was lower than March because we switched to fully diluted total supply (FDV). Positive upside factors include: if the total amount is not completely diluted, the unit price is roughly doubled, and the valuation is based on actual tokens in circulation. The discount rate was lowered from 20% to 15%, and the benchmark scenario valuation was raised from $98 to $111 under a 30x multiplier. Hyperliquid currently retains 0.18% of annual trading volume as USDC margin, while CME is only 0.01%.
If traditional financial traders were used to leaving funds on the platform like crypto traders, USDC interest income would be much higher than we had assumed. Every $1 option premium can drive $10-20 in perpetual contracts to hedge trading volume. Native options aren't live on HyperCore yet, so the model didn't take this portion of the increment into account. Our supply assumption: all tokens to be released will be in circulation by 2029:302 million tokens currently in circulation, 238 million units held by core contributors, and 410 million units to be released in the future under Hyperliquid markup, minus repurchases and destruction (approximately 76 million at 30 times).
If only half of the tokens to be released are in circulation by 2029, the supply will be around 683 million, and the base price will rise from $98 to $125 under a 30x multiplier; if these tokens are not in circulation at all, the unit price will be $173 million. Downside risk factors include: if fees for non-crypto operations fall to 0.0004% of CME, the benchmark scenario valuation falls from $98 to $66 under a 30x multiplier;
If all varieties stay in growth mode, it's $85. Crypto perpetual contract fees are also under competitive pressure: Lighter has introduced zero fees. Binance's traditional financial perpetual contract is 6 times larger than Hyperliquid, and competition is fierce. The premise of the benchmark scenario is that in 2029, crypto trading volume and fee revenue will average 3 times the current level, corresponding to $98 under a 30x multiplier.
If it only reaches the current 1.5x, the base price is $71 with a 30x multiplier; if the trading volume is flat, it is $62. USDC interest was the source of $935 million in 2029 revenue, so US interest rates are critical. For every 100 basis points cut in interest rates, this portion of revenue shrinks by more than a quarter; at 2.6%, the benchmark price is $92. All estimates in this article are based on the interactive valuation model HYPE valuation model, and all parameters can be modified by oneself.