The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citi released a research report saying that this year is the 18th year that major e-commerce platforms in China have hosted the Double Eleven Shopping Festival, and mainstream platforms have been promoting since mid-October. The bank observed that the platform's strategy is shifting to direct price reduction and no longer requiring collection of orders, which is expected to help curb false orders and reduce return rates; at the same time, the platform invests more subsidies into customer membership groups with high lifetime value, such as 88VIP and JD Plus, and promotes extensive use of artificial intelligence (AI) by merchants to improve operational efficiency.
Citi expects that all platforms will continue not to disclose the total amount of GMV this year, possibly focusing more on category performance, user participation, and AI-driven sales metrics. Following the 4% year-on-year increase in industry GMV during the “618” period in 2026, the bank estimates that the GMV of the overall Double Eleven industry will grow as low as medium units this year, mainly driven by factors such as the rapid growth of Douyin e-commerce, the strong performance of the JD (09618) service category, and intense competition in instant retail.
Mainland big data company Star Map predicts that the total GMV of Double Eleven will increase by 14.2% year on year to 1.7 trillion yuan, of which e-commerce GMV will increase 12.3% year over year to 1.62 trillion yuan. Douyin will be tied with Tmall and JD for the top three.
In terms of platform performance, the GMV of 124 brands on Tmall, a subsidiary of Alibaba (09988), surpassed 100 million yuan in the first four hours of sales, and 27,681 brands surpassed the same period last year in sales, benefiting from the use of AI by platform merchants and a significant increase in sales in subsidized categories such as digital electronics and smartphones. Since October 12, JD has launched promotions with direct official price cuts and no need to collect orders, and the number of users that traded on the day of sale achieved double-digit growth over the same period last year. Douyin started a strong live streaming and FMCG business; Kuaishou (01024) focused on global AI operation tools and tiered traffic subsidies.
In terms of instant retail, transaction volume surged 112.3% year-on-year during the “618” period in 2026, mainly driven by businesses such as Meituan (03690) flash sales, Taobao flash sales, and JD instant delivery. In terms of ratings, Citi maintains Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo (PDD.US) “buy” ratings, and maintains VIPS.US (VIPS.US) “neutral” ratings.