The Zhitong Finance App learned that the US Department of Labor announced on Thursday (October 29) that for the week ending October 24, the number of first-time jobless claims after the seasonal adjustment was 194,000, lower than market expectations of 198,000-200,000; the previous week's data was slightly revised from 194,000 to 195,000, a decrease of 1,000 this week.
As of the week ending October 17, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 196,75,000, continuing to be in a historically low range, down 1,250 from the previous week's revised average; the previous week's average was raised by 250, from 197,75 to 198,000. Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh said at a press conference after the interest rate meeting on October 28 that as measured by the four-week average, the number of initial jobless claims “continues to be low for decades,” adding that the employment situation is “quite positive.”
The data shows that although the number of new non-agricultural jobs announced earlier was only 29,000, which was clearly weak, the scale of corporate layoffs did not rise at the same time, and the labor market showed resilient characteristics of “low recruitment and low layoffs.” The employment data, along with the third-quarter GDP released on the same day, the September core PCE price index, and personal spending, together form the latest basis for the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy and inflation.
On the policy side, the Federal Reserve held an interest rate meeting on October 28 with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, keeping the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two officials advocated an immediate increase in interest rates by 25 basis points. This is the first “stand still” following the 25 basis point rate hike on September 16 (the first rate hike since July 2023). Walsh stressed at the press conference that inflation is “still too high,” energy and related prices have risen again in recent weeks, and the Federal Reserve needs to prevent local price increases from spreading to the overall economy. The current policy is still being “suspended” in the trend of tightening rather than shifting to easing.