The Zhitong Finance App learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) will release financial reports next week, and Morgan Stanley will release a performance outlook report, saying that based on interviews and predictions with channels and partners, the company is expected to hand over another financial report that exceeds expectations and achieve a thirteenth consecutive quarter of growth. However, in the face of high valuations that fully reflect optimistic expectations, analysts maintained an equal-weight (equal-weight) rating, which suggests that the market needs to rationally view the AI-driven boom; a stock price correction is a better layout window.
Judging from industry research feedback, demand for enterprise-side data modernization and AI operation decision making projects remains strong. Relying on Ontology (Ontology) and the AIP artificial intelligence platform, Palantir can open up heterogeneous data within the enterprise and implement commercial AI decision-making processes. Compared with data warehouses and general model manufacturers such as Snowflake to form differentiated competition, direct competitive pressure is limited.
However, the shortcomings in the business model are also prominent: the early implementation costs of the project are high, and it is highly dependent on front-end deployment engineers, which also continues to trigger market debate over “software or consulting”; at the same time, the financial industry circuit has yet to make breakthrough progress, and there is insufficient evidence that the number of new customers is expanding at an accelerated pace.
At the performance level, the company officially gave Q3 revenue guidance of US$21.6-2.64 billion, an increase of 83% over the previous year. Damo expects revenue to exceed expectations by 5-6% this quarter, which is lower than 7.6% in the second quarter. Actual revenue is expected to reach US$22.7-2.29 billion, rising to 92-94% year-on-year growth.
The US commercial sector is still the core growth engine. In the second quarter, the sector's revenue soared 149% year on year, but the increase in the base volume combined with the growth rate of the number of customers fell from 42% to 35%, making it more difficult to accelerate further. Maintaining a growth rate of around 140% is already a positive result. The Q4 performance guide will be the most important observation indicator in the future, and it will also determine whether the annual revenue guide will be adjusted.
Financially, the company maintains a strong ability to control expenses, and the operating profit margin remains stable at a high level of close to 60%. The growth rate of commercial business is significantly higher than that of government business. Government orders are steady, but the growth rate is gradually declining. Regional revenue is highly concentrated in the North American market, and the rest of the regions contribute less.
The biggest discrepancy in the report comes from valuations. The current stock price corresponds to about 70 times the 2027 free cash flow. It has almost completely taken into account the market's optimistic assumptions about AI commercialization, and there is very little room for stock price fault tolerance. Even if fundamentals continue to be strong, the target price for the benchmark scenario is 205 US dollars, and there is limited room for increase compared to the current price of 196.81 US dollars. According to DCF's cash flow discount calculation, the target price is 295 US dollars in the optimistic scenario, and the implied probability of realization of the option is only 9.3%; under the pessimistic scenario, the target price drops to 81 US dollars.
Taken together, Palantir's product differentiation and corporate AI demand are real. The Q3 financial report is likely to exceed expectations, but the high valuation has already realized most of the benefits. The core upward catalyst for the future comes from faster acquisition of new commercial customers and government budget orders exceeding expectations; the main risks are that large orders cause performance fluctuations, delivery model disputes, and AI commercialization falling short of expectations. As far as investors are concerned, they acknowledge the flexibility of quarterly results on a tactical level, but they should not chase higher; they should wait for stock price pullbacks before evaluating the allocation value.