Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY) has lost about 75% of its value since it hit an all-time high of $73.80 per share in August 2025. Shares recently traded around $18.23, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $3 billion. That's a pretty steep decline for a company that successfully landed a spacecraft on the Moon and is now generating triple-digit revenue growth.

Of course, a stock trading 75% below its high doesn't mean it's cheap. But Firefly has something that many emerging space companies don't: proven technology, paying customers, and a growing portfolio of government contracts. And at less than $20 per share, it's my favorite speculative space stock right now. Let me explain.

Firefly is doing more than launching rockets

In March 2025, Firefly's Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully touched down on the Moon, becoming the first commercial spacecraft to complete a fully successful lunar landing mission. That helped establish Firefly as a serious competitor in the rapidly expanding commercial space industry. But lunar exploration is only part of the business.

Firefly also develops Alpha, a small-satellite launch vehicle, and Eclipse, a larger rocket being developed with Northrop Grumman. And consider its Elytra spacecraft platform, too, which is designed to transport payloads, support satellite operations, and perform missions in orbit. All of these capabilities give Firefly exposure to several markets, including commercial satellite launches, military space operations, and NASA's lunar exploration programs.

Revenue is soaring

In the second quarter of 2026, Firefly reported record revenue of $117.7 million, an increase of 659% year over year and 45.5% sequentially. That's significant growth for a company that generated only about $160 million in revenue during all of 2025. Firefly also secured a $144 million NASA contract for another Blue Ghost lunar mission, bringing its total contracted lunar missions to six.

The company is expanding beyond lunar landers, too. Its acquisition of Space-ng added autonomous navigation technology that could strengthen future spacecraft operations. Indeed, Firefly is positioning itself to serve customers across multiple stages of a space mission, from launching satellites to transporting and operating spacecraft. And that creates opportunities for repeat business rather than relying exclusively on occasional rocket launches.

Why I'm bullish on Firefly below $20

Firefly isn't profitable, and you shouldn't overlook that. Rocket development is expensive, missions can fail, and government contracts don't always translate into predictable revenue. Valuation also deserves attention. Even after its enormous decline, Firefly trades at roughly 10 times trailing annual revenue. That's not particularly cheap for a money-losing company.

But Firefly's revenue growth, demonstrated lunar capabilities, and expanding government relationships give it a credible path toward becoming a much larger space business. And at roughly $18 per share, I see considerably more long-term upside potential than the recent stock performance suggests. That said, Firefly remains a high-risk investment. But if you're comfortable with a bit of volatility and a multi-year holding period, it's one of the most compelling speculative space stocks under $20.

Jeff Siegel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Firefly Aerospace and Northrop Grumman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.