Befesa stock closed at €37.4 after the market digested its Q3 2026 earnings, a level that already reflects a solid run over the last month and quarter. Traders focused on the headline uplift in adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 and the planned recognition of about €26m of extra adjusted EBITDA in Q4 linked to the U.S. Section 45X credit.
Short-term screens picked up a metals recycler that just printed quarterly revenue of €311.6m and quarterly earnings per share of €0.58. Longer-term investors saw something different: a business tightening margins, extending zinc price hedges out to 2029 and reshaping its cash generation profile for years, not days.
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Q3 2026 Befesa Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): €311.6m vs. €290.3m, an increase of 7.4%
- Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): €23.0m vs. €20.7m, an increase of 11.3%
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): €0.58 vs. €0.52, an increase of 11.5%
- Adjusted EBITDA (9M 2026 vs 9M 2025): €192m vs. €175m, an increase of 10%
Befesa lifted 2026 guidance on expected U.S. IRA zinc credits. Ask Charlie what makes Befesa so confident on the 45X credits.
Befesa’s Bull Story Meets Hard Evidence
Optimists argue Befesa can turn higher electric arc furnace volumes, firm utilization and multi year zinc hedging into a more resilient earnings engine.
"The main condition is that new and existing electric arc furnace capacity in Europe and the U.S. continues to translate into higher steel dust throughput at solid margins, while the company keeps total CapEx in the targeted lower range and maintains deleveraging progress."
Q3 and 9M figures partly back this. Steel dust EBITDA for 9M 2026 reached €158m with group adjusted EBITDA up 10%, helped by strong zinc pricing. Throughput was softer than hoped in Europe and Asia, so volume upside is not yet clear. Deleveraging is tracking, with net leverage at 2.16x and guidance to approximately 1.8x helped by the Section 45X credit.
One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Befesa should trade.
Befesa bear case: volumes and cash still on probation
Bearish investors worry that Befesa’s growth stalls if scarce waste streams choke plant loading and cash generation.
"Although Befesa is positioned to serve growing electric arc furnace steel production, a weaker than expected conversion of the projected European and U.S. capacity additions into contracted steel dust volumes or plant load factors, especially if counterparties retain more waste in house, could leave utilization and revenue below what current expectations imply."
Q3 data leans toward that concern. Steel dust EBITDA of €158m for 9M 2026 edges up only slightly year on year, even with a supportive zinc backdrop. Europe and Asia report softer volumes, and WOX tonnage is down about 3%, so the higher EBITDA guidance is doing more work than the assets yet.
Hunt For Mispriced Earnings Power
Befesa has reported fresh Q3 numbers and sharpened guidance on cash generation mechanics. The real opportunity is in finding stocks that may be undervalued before the market reassesses them.
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