Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Newell Brands reports before market open, meaning Day 0 represents the first trading session where the market reacts to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | +$0.46 (+8.95%) | $1.63 (31.81%) | +$0.76 (+13.57%) | $0.88 (15.80%) |
| 2026-05-01 | +$0.47 (+11.52%) | $0.29 (7.11%) | +$0.06 (+1.32%) | $0.25 (5.60%) |
| 2026-02-06 | +$0.11 (+2.43%) | $0.79 (17.48%) | -$0.09 (-1.94%) | $0.23 (4.86%) |
| 2025-10-31 | -$1.32 (-27.97%) | $0.71 (15.04%) | -$0.17 (-5.15%) | $0.19 (5.74%) |
| 2025-08-01 | -$0.85 (-15.15%) | $0.78 (13.90%) | +$0.21 (+4.52%) | $0.33 (6.83%) |
| 2025-04-30 | -$0.39 (-7.54%) | $0.44 (8.51%) | +$0.39 (+8.16%) | $0.52 (10.88%) |
| 2025-02-07 | -$2.56 (-26.42%) | $0.87 (8.93%) | -$0.13 (-1.75%) | $0.65 (9.12%) |
| 2024-10-25 | +$1.55 (+21.59%) | $0.93 (12.88%) | +$0.80 (+9.16%) | $0.93 (10.60%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 15.20% | 14.46% | 5.70% | 8.68% |
Newell Brands exhibits highly volatile post-earnings price behavior, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 15.20% and Day +1 follow-through averaging 5.70%. The most recent earnings release on July 31, 2026 produced dramatic upside, with the stock surging 8.95% on Day 0 and extending gains to 13.57% by Day +1—the strongest two-day performance in the dataset. This followed the May 2026 report which saw an 11.52% Day 0 pop.
However, the historical pattern shows significant downside risk as well. The October 2025 report triggered a -27.97% Day 0 decline, while February 2025 saw a -26.42% drop, demonstrating the stock's capacity for severe negative reactions to disappointing results. The average Day 0 trading range of 14.46% underscores the extreme volatility surrounding these events. Given the sequential step-down expected this quarter after last quarter's exceptional beat, investors should prepare for potentially significant price movement in either direction, with recent positive momentum suggesting the market may be positioned for another beat.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 22) |
| Expected Move | $0.78 (15.39%) |
| Expected Range | $4.30 to $5.86 |
| Implied Volatility | 92.77% |
The options market is pricing a 15.39% expected move through the November 20th expiration, slightly above the 15.20% average historical Day 0 move but well below the combined two-day average of approximately 20.90%. This suggests options traders are anticipating volatility consistent with typical earnings reactions, though the implied range of $4.30 to $5.86 indicates the market is braced for significant movement in either direction.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a Hold consensus on Newell Brands with an average rating of 3.60 on the five-point scale, reflecting cautious optimism tempered by execution concerns. The mean price target of $6.58 implies 29.5% upside from the current price of $5.08, suggesting analysts see meaningful value if the company can sustain its recent momentum.
The rating breakdown shows 4 Strong Buy ratings and 5 Hold ratings, offset by 1 Strong Sell, indicating divided opinion on the stock's prospects. The target range spans from a low of $5.00 to a high of $11.00, with the wide spread reflecting uncertainty about whether Q2's exceptional performance marked a sustainable turnaround or a temporary spike.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with Strong Buy ratings increasing from 3 to 4 while Hold ratings declined from 6 to 5. The average recommendation has shifted from 3.40 to 3.60, suggesting growing confidence among some analysts following the Q2 beat. However, the persistence of a Strong Sell rating and the concentration of Hold recommendations indicate many analysts remain on the sidelines, waiting for additional evidence that the company can deliver consistent results before upgrading their stance.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion shows a Buy signal at 8%, representing a dramatic weakening from 56% Buy last week and 40% Buy last month. This sharp deterioration in the technical signal reflects recent price weakness as the stock has pulled back from post-earnings highs.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Negative signal indicates near-term momentum has turned bearish as the stock retreats from recent highs
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Positive reading suggests the intermediate-term trend remains constructive despite short-term weakness
- Long-term (50% Buy): Bullish signal reflects the stock's recovery from 52-week lows earlier this year and position above the 200-day moving average
Trend Characteristics: The Weak strength combined with a Weakening direction indicates deteriorating momentum heading into earnings, with the technical setup losing conviction as the report approaches.
The stock is trading at $5.08, positioned below all short-term moving averages (5-day at $5.29, 10-day at $5.46, 20-day at $5.53, 50-day at $5.69, and 100-day at $5.58) but above the 200-day moving average at $4.83. This configuration suggests the stock is in a short-term downtrend within a longer-term recovery pattern.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $5.29 | 50-Day MA | $5.69 |
| 10-Day MA | $5.46 | 100-Day MA | $5.58 |
| 20-Day MA | $5.53 | 200-Day MA | $4.83 |
The technical setup heading into earnings is cautionary, with the stock breaking below all near-term moving averages and showing weakening momentum after failing to hold gains from the July earnings surge. The 52-week range of $3.07 to $7.13 provides context—shares reached that high immediately following last quarter's beat but have since given back significant gains. However, the position above the 200-day moving average suggests the longer-term uptrend remains intact. The deteriorating short-term technicals combined with high expected volatility create a setup where a positive earnings surprise could trigger a sharp reversal back toward resistance levels, while a disappointment could accelerate the recent decline toward the $4.83 support level.