GFL Environmental entered this Q3 2026 earnings release on a strong run, with the stock up over the past week, month and quarter, and closing today at CA$62.94. The headline result is blunt. The waste services group grew revenue to CA$2,155.3m but still reported a net loss of CA$21.6m and a basic loss per share of CA$0.06.
That mix of higher top line and ongoing red ink captures the expectation gap around GFL. The market has been treating the business like a high growth compounder. The actual quarter highlights a company still wrestling with profitability and margin pressure.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): CA$2,155.3m vs. CA$1,694.2m (top line higher year on year)
- Net Loss (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): CA$21.6m loss vs. CA$102.5m profit (swing from profit to loss)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): loss of CA$0.06 per share vs. earnings of CA$0.28 per share (moved from positive to negative)
- Trailing 12-Month Net Result (TTM to Q3 2026 vs TTM to Q3 2025): CA$320.2m loss vs. CA$183.0m loss (larger loss on a rolling 12-month view)
Losses are narrowing while revenue keeps climbing at GFL Environmental. Ask Charlie what makes GFL Environmental’s growth forecasts stand out.
Evaluating GFL’s 2026 Upside Milestones
Optimistic views on GFL Environmental hinge on the idea that today’s initiatives are building a higher margin, cash generative platform rather than just a bigger one.
"Bullish analysts expect GFL Environmental to convert its current program of pricing discipline, efficiency gains, and higher free cash flow into a larger, higher margin platform supported by the SECURE Waste Infrastructure acquisition and its minority-owned ES and GIP businesses."
Q3 offers real progress against that script. Revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow all came in ahead of expectations, with underlying adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by more than 115 bps. Management raised 2026 guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow again, and highlighted SECURE as a key contributor. This supports the idea that the platform is scaling with better economics, not just more volume.
Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the higher figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there.
GFL Bear Case: Volume, Mix And Execution Risks
The bearish setup argues that GFL Environmental’s edge fades if contract economics weaken and execution slips on growth projects.
"Bearish analysts expect GFL Environmental to see its pricing power and share gains erode over time if regulatory change and new recycling technologies reduce the value of fixed fee-for-service contracts and expose the business to higher volume and commodity risk."
This quarter does not yet show pricing erosion, and organic growth of 7.4% plus a Q3 earnings beat push back against that concern. The more immediate stress point is softer C&D and special waste volumes and a cut to the 2026 volume outlook, which suggests that volume sensitivity is already creeping higher even while reported pricing still appears healthy.
Hunt For Quiet Dislocations
GFL Environmental shows how a strong revenue line can still leave big questions around earnings quality. The real opportunity could sit in stocks that look mispriced before sentiment shifts.
- Company 1 - 35% below our estimate - uses serial acquisitions and shared delivery centers to fold niche engineering shops into larger, higher margin infrastructure and water programs.
- Company 2 - 50% below our estimate - shifts ore feed toward higher grade zones so each truck hauled out of the pit carries more payable metal.
- Company 3 - 45% below our estimate - leans on faster inventory turns and a flexible buy model to chase winning fashion lines without drowning cash in stale stock.
Three companies from the same screener. Open all 4 potentially undervalued companies →
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