Rush Street Interactive just put out Q3 2026 numbers that look far better than today’s share price suggests. The stock dropped almost 10% to US$13.62, capping a roughly 49% slide over the past three months, even as revenue reached US$385.9m and adjusted EBITDA hit US$62.2m.
This is a sentiment reckoning. Traders sold hard on a crowded trade in online betting, while the business posted a healthy adjusted EBITDA margin and kept cash at US$382m with no debt. Price action reflected anxiety. The fundamentals told a calmer story.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Total Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): US$385.9m vs. US$277.9m (up about 39%)
- Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): US$11.8m vs. US$6.1m (up about 96%)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): US$0.10 vs. US$0.06 (up about 63%)
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): 16.1% vs. 9.3% (adjusted EBITDA up about 73% year on year)
Latin America revenue jumped more than 200% year over year. Ask Charlie what Rush Street Interactive’s LatAm surge means for 2027.
Rush Street Interactive: Testing The Bull Case On Execution
The bullish view hangs on Rush Street Interactive turning regional expansion and casino focus into durable earnings strength rather than just one strong quarter.
"The main thing that has to go right is continued execution in Latin American markets and new regulated jurisdictions so that user growth, ARPMAU and marketing spend all convert into durable earnings and cash generation."
Q3 hits several of those checkpoints. Latin America MAUs climbed faster than North America and ARPMAU in the region reached US$58. Casino now accounts for roughly three quarters of revenue. Marketing outlay rose 44%, yet an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.1% and higher net income show that acquisition spending still translated into healthier profitability.
That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for.
Rush Street Interactive: Bear Fears On Taxes And Saturation
One of the sharper concerns around Rush Street Interactive is that rising Latin American tax pressure could blunt the benefit of user growth just as markets scale.
"Despite strong momentum in Latin America with rapidly rising MAUs, mounting regulatory and tax uncertainty in Colombia and potential higher gaming taxes in Mexico risk compressing net revenue and EBITDA margins just as these markets scale. This could dilute the benefit of current GGR growth."
Q3 results partly validate that worry. Latin America revenue surged and ARPMAU climbed, yet management still framed Colombia’s 16% temporary excise as a meaningful headwind and highlighted Brazil as too uncertain to enter. Guidance reiteration helps, but the stock’s roughly 50% three month slide shows investors are treating tax and regulatory risk as more than theoretical.
Hunt For Mispriced Execution Stories
Rush Street Interactive just showed how sentiment can disconnect sharply from reported progress. The real opportunity could be hunting for stocks where that gap has not closed yet.
- Company 1 - 32% below our estimate - builds massive AI superclusters that large model providers use when single-cloud capacity or resilience starts to pinch.
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That is three of the list. See the full list of 30 companies trading below our fair value estimates →
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