The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in the short term, the focus should be on the Federal Reserve's trade-off between energy and core service inflation, as well as the impact of the US-Iran situation on oil prices, interest rate expectations, and liquidity after the midterm elections. The long-term allocation value of gold still depends on the expansion of developed countries' deficits and the accumulation of debt that continues to erode fiat credit. Whether AI can improve productivity and fiscal sustainability will influence the pace at which this logic is implemented. If the ensuing war intensifies and oil prices rise without further increasing expectations of interest rate hikes, the decline in real interest rates and safe-haven demand may once again form support. Under this scenario, if gold continues to fall due to deleveraging and cash demand, it is more likely to enter the mid-term bottom zone, providing an opportunity for long-term allocation.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Gold has recently declined at the same time as US stocks, while US bond yields have declined, reflecting differences in the safe-haven logic and asset metallicity of different assets. Gold is both a long-term reserve asset and a financial asset that can be quickly realized. When the AI-related stock market resonates and partial deleveraging pressure rises, investors may sell gold to supplement security deposits and cash, so that the short-term financial impact overweighs the long-term safe-haven logic. The US dollar index has not strengthened significantly, which is not enough to rule out local liquidity pressure. Potential yen intervention may also interfere with this signal, but it has yet to be confirmed.
The risk of US debt hedging with gold is not the same. US debt is more directly benefiting from growth concerns and declining risk appetite within the US dollar system, while gold is more receptive to concerns about the credit of the US dollar system. The current market's questions about AI mainly focus on return on investment and technology stock valuations, and have not been fully extended to the overall financing capacity of the US. As a result, capital can sell technology stocks, buy US bonds, and stay within the US dollar system. The value of gold as a hedge against the dollar's credit risk will only become more prominent if concerns about insufficient AI returns are further transmitted to financial stability, fiscal burdens, and policy responses.
There is no fixed one-way relationship between war, oil prices, and gold. The escalation of the conflict may not only increase safe-haven demand, but may also reinforce expectations of monetary tightening through energy inflation and constrain the price of gold. The 3-month implied volatility of gold has fallen back to about 24%, at the 64% level in the past year, indicating that expectations of volatility have cooled down, but this is not enough to confirm the bottom of the price. In the short term, we should focus on the Federal Reserve's trade-off between energy and core services inflation, and the impact of the US-Iran situation on oil prices, interest rate expectations, and liquidity after the midterm elections.
The long-term allocation value of gold still depends on the expansion of developed countries' deficits and the accumulation of debt that continues to erode fiat credit. Whether AI can improve productivity and fiscal sustainability will influence the pace at which this logic is implemented. If the ensuing war intensifies and oil prices rise without further increasing expectations of interest rate hikes, the decline in real interest rates and safe-haven demand may once again form support. Under this scenario, if gold continues to fall due to deleveraging and cash demand, it is more likely to enter the mid-term bottom zone, providing an opportunity for long-term allocation.
Risk warning: inflation, war, and monetary tightening exceeded expectations; cross-market deleveraging exceeded expectations; AI investment returns and productivity boosts exceeded expectations.