The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that investors have recently been concerned about the downside risks that artificial intelligence capital expenditure cycles, high corporate interest rates, and rising oil prices may bring to Asia's macro outlook. The bank believes that these headwinds have so far only moderately dragged down Asian economic growth and have had no significant impact.

The bank pointed out that the Asian capital expenditure supercycle was not only driven by AI; AI and AI-related energy and industrial capital expenditure only accounted for about 20% of the increase in capital expenditure in Asia. Furthermore, corporate balance sheets remain healthy, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is still below pre-pandemic levels, helping to cushion the impact of rising interest rates; the rise in oil prices is still within a manageable range, rising export prices, and 83% of the region's economies having sufficient local refining capacity can all be offset.

The bank believes that if oil prices continue to rise above $120 per barrel, the central bank raises interest rates in the procyclical cycle, and AI capital spending falls in 2027 compared to 2026, it may pose a significant downside risk to regional economic growth. In comparison, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, mainland China, and Malaysia are more susceptible to AI capital expenditure cycles; India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are more susceptible to high interest rates and high oil prices.

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