Shareholders of mBank S.A. (WSE:MBK) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to zł1,668 following its latest quarterly results. mBank reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of zł3.3b and statutory earnings per share of zł83.26, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from mBank's five analysts is for revenues of zł13.6b in 2027. This reflects a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 19% to zł116. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of zł13.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł115 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for mBank
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of zł1,319, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on mBank, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at zł1,555 and the most bearish at zł1,086 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that mBank's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 9.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while mBank's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple mBank analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of mBank's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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