Key Points
SpaceX is trading well below its post-IPO peak, but its business is booming
Three scenarios for the stock give three different price targets.
The odds appear to favor a solid, if not spectacular, gain by 2027 year-end.
Few new stocks have generated the level of interest that Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX, has. SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) was the largest ever. Its founder, Elon Musk, is the world's richest person.
But SpaceX hasn't been a big winner for ordinary investors so far. The stock is roughly 25% below its peak set shortly after its June 2026 IPO.
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What matters more, though, is how SpaceX might perform in the future. Here's what $5,000 invested today could be worth by the end of 2027.
Image source: Getty Images. Image source: Getty Images.
A lot of hype, but a successful business behind it
While there has certainly been a lot of hype about SpaceX, this isn't a case of a stock being all sizzle and no steak. The company generated revenue of $14.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up an impressive 161% year over year. It also posted a profit of $4.4 billion in Q3, marking a dramatic improvement from the $1.1 billion loss recorded in the prior year period.
Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish about SpaceX. Of the 35 analysts who rated the stock over the past three months, 29 recommended buying it. The average 12-month price target for SpaceX reflects a potential upside of roughly 66%.
Musk continues to stir things up. He posted on X (formerly Twitter) in June, "I think that SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030." Last week, Musk upped the ante, posting, "As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible."
He is also promoting a merger between SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). However, Musk acknowledged that a transaction ultimately might not be finalized.
Three scenarios, three estimates
What could a $5,000 investment in SpaceX be worth by the end of next year? Let's look at three scenarios, each with its own estimate.
The bear scenario for SpaceX is best articulated by Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) analyst Nicolas Owens. He argues that the stock's fair value is $70, less than half its current price.
While acknowledging SpaceX's success in artificial intelligence (AI) computing so far, Owens stated, "We do not think it likely that demand will outstrip supply forever, especially the more capacity is deployed." An initial investment of $5,000 in this bear scenario would be worth only around $2,356 at the end of 2027.
The base scenario is for SpaceX to end 2027 with a share price of between $185 and $200, around 30% above the current price at the midpoint of the range. In this scenario, the company's Starlink satellite internet service and AI segment continue to grow robustly. However, the December lockup expiration creates significant downside pressure on the stock.
Still, SpaceX's positives outweigh its negatives in the base scenario. An investment of $5,000 today would grow to roughly $6,478 at the midpoint of the scenario's projected range and up to $6,730 at the upper end by the end of next year.
What about the bull scenario? SpaceX stock hits $300 by the 2027 year-end. In this upbeat scenario, SpaceX quickly demonstrates full rapid reusability of its Starship spacecraft, enabling the company to capture a larger share of the space launch market. A prototype of its Starmind project validates the feasibility of running AI applications on satellites orbiting Earth. The Tesla merger sails through with terms highly favorable to SpaceX shareholders.
This would be an even more optimistic outcome than most Wall Street analysts currently expect. And it could propel an initial $5,000 investment in SpaceX to around $10,096 by Dec. 31, 2027.
A probability-weighted verdict
Rather than pick which scenario to go with to predict how SpaceX's stock will perform over the next 14 months, I'll take a stab at giving a probability-weighted verdict.
The base case has the highest odds of coming to pass, in my view. My take is that a 55% probability sounds about right. I don't think the bull case is as likely to play out. However, I believe that a 25% probability is justifiable. That leaves a 20% probability for the bear scenario.
Crunching the numbers yields an estimated SpaceX share price of roughly $195 by the end of 2027. This represents a gain of slightly over 30% from the current share price.
Granted, my assumptions about the share prices and probabilities for each scenario could be way off. If I'm right, though, investors who buy $5,000 worth of SpaceX's shares today could be sitting on more than $6,500 by the end of next year.
Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.