It's been a good week for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.4% to US$66.14. Freeport-McMoRan reported US$7.5b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.81 beat expectations, being 4.0% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Freeport-McMoRan after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Freeport-McMoRan's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$36.6b in 2027. This would reflect a huge 38% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 87% to US$4.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$36.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.53 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$78.75. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Freeport-McMoRan at US$90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$33.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Freeport-McMoRan's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 30% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Freeport-McMoRan to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Freeport-McMoRan. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Freeport-McMoRan going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Freeport-McMoRan that you need to be mindful of.
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