Pre-market market trends
1. Before the US stock market on October 30 (Friday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.09%, S&P 500 futures were down 1.05%, and NASDAQ futures were down 2.53%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.65%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.18%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.08%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.93%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 2.05% to $104.09 per barrel. Brent crude rose 2.22% to $113.26 per barrel.
Market news
AI trading has cooled down drastically, and safe-haven purchases are flocking to US bonds! The “anchor of global asset pricing” is expected to decline for the first month in 8 months. At a time when AI computing power and semiconductor stocks were being sold off, US Treasury bonds once again showed the safe-haven value of the combination. During the Asian trading session on October 30, US bonds continued to rise, and the 10-year yield once fell to about 4.90%. The yield on the US benchmark treasury bond fell by a cumulative total of nearly 40 basis points in October, and is expected to record the first monthly decline since February this year; at the same time, the Bloomberg US Treasury yield index rose by about 2% in the same month, which is expected to be the best monthly performance since February 2025. The former measures changes in yield, and the latter measures return on bond investment. Both sets of data indicate that US bonds are absorbing strong safe-haven demand brought about by declining risk appetite in technology stocks.
After misjudging the Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision, the Bank of America maintained hawkish expectations: it will raise interest rates twice by March next year. The Bank of America believes that future inflation trends may still force the Federal Reserve to take further action. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice more in the next few months to push the federal funds rate target range to 4.25% to 4.5% by March 2027. This forecast is an adjustment made after the Federal Reserve decided to suspend interest rate hikes in October, and the bank continues to be one of the institutions where Wall Street is more hawkish in judging the future of monetary policy. Bank of America economists currently expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027, respectively, and maintain interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range thereafter until the end of 2027. Previously, the bank had expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the October meeting. The Bank of America also believes that the Federal Reserve's statement sends a signal that it wants to adjust policy at a more gradual pace because policymakers are unsure about the extent to which current interest rates limit the economy. The bank also warned that if Walsh is unwilling to provide policy guidance or surprise the market through practical actions, its influence may gradually weaken.
Was Walsh's suspension of interest rate hikes leaving a “mess”? Markets are turning their attention to the Ministry of Finance's financing plan for next quarter. The quarterly financing plan announced by the US Treasury next week is receiving great attention from the market. Investors expect the Treasury to adjust the treasury bond issuance structure to provide some cushion for the Fed's decision to suspend interest rate hikes in October, especially as inflation remains high and US economic growth remains strong. Goldberg, head of US interest rate strategy at TD Securities, and his team expect the Treasury Department may suggest next week that the 10-year and 30-year treasury bond auctions will be reduced next year. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance may increase the issuance of 2-year to 10-year treasury bonds to ease the pressure brought about by rising long-term bond yields. If the Ministry of Finance adjusts the issuance structure to reduce long-term treasury bonds and increase the supply of short- and medium-term treasury bonds, the actual effect will be to ease supply pressure in the long-term bond market, thereby reducing long-term treasury bond yields. Declining long-term yields can help lower mortgage costs, control corporate financing expenses, and reduce the US government's interest burden to cover the fiscal deficit.
Technology stocks experienced a rough October, and hedge fund shorting is becoming a risk amplifier! AI trading conceals greater volatility. Technology stocks retreated 8% in October, but the way for hedge funds was not to completely withdraw from AI transactions, but to adjust risk hedging strategies. Strategist Simon White pointed out that the fund is reducing shorting on individual stocks and is instead shorting the Nasdaq index through index tools such as QQQ. This change appears to be just a trading strategy adjustment, but it may change the fluctuation mechanism of the entire market. Previously, the low correlation between individual stocks helped depress the VIX Index. Even though technology companies continued to borrow money to finance large-scale AI capital expenses, the overall market volatility was still relatively moderate. Today, index-level hedging is increasing, and the possibility of simultaneous rise and fall between stocks is also rising. The simultaneous rise in crowded trading, leverage, and correlation may have concentrated exposure to risks previously overshadowed by a low volatile environment.
ANZ raised its oil price forecast to 105 US dollars, saying that the armistice in the Middle East will not stop oil prices from rising. The Bank of Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) raised its Brent crude oil price forecast on Friday, believing that the eight-month war with Iran has clearly weakened the ability of the global oil market to cope with supply shocks. Even if the situation in the Middle East does not escalate, transportation restrictions, refining bottlenecks, and falling stocks may continue to strain supply. ANZ raised the price forecast for Brent crude oil at the end of this year from 95 US dollars to 105 US dollars per barrel, provided there is no new escalation in the Middle East conflict. ANZ pointed out that although oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has largely recovered, related transportation efficiency is only equivalent to about 60% before the war. This means that the recovery in crude oil export flows has yet to bring about simultaneous normalization of the entire supply chain. Transportation capacity, shipping arrangements and refining processes are still constrained, making actual delivery difficult. Even if logistics conditions do not deteriorate further, the current tight delivery situation, particularly restrictions in the shipping sector, may make it difficult for the global oil market to re-accumulate stocks.
Individual stock news
US technology stocks generally fell before the market. Before the US stock market on Friday, Intel (INTC.US) plummeted nearly 26%, AMD (AMD.US) and SNDK.US (SNDK.US) fell more than 8%, Amazon (AMZN.US), SK Hynix (SKHY.US), Seagate (STX.US), Western Digital (WDC.US) fell more than 7%, Micron (MU.US) fell more than 5%, Qualcomm (QCOM.US), SpaceX (SPCX.US), and Broadcom (AVGO.US) fell more than 4% (TSM.US), Oracle (ORCL.US) fell nearly 4%, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) fell nearly 3%. In terms of optical communications stocks, Credo Technology (CRDO.US) and Coherent (COHR.US) fell more than 8%, Astera Labs (ALAB.US) and Corning (GLW.US) fell more than 6%, and MRVL.US (MRVL.US) fell nearly 6%.
Intel (INTC.US) Q4 performance guidance fell far short of expectations, and the PC business continued to weaken. According to financial reports, Intel's Q3 revenue increased 21% year over year to US$16.5 billion, with adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share, all higher than market expectations. The division of hot and cold business segments is obvious. The Data Center and Artificial Intelligence Division (DCAI) became the core growth engine, with Q3 revenue of US$7.318 billion, surging 78% year over year, operating profit of US$3,039 billion, and profit margin of 41.5%. The Client Computing and Physical AI Division (CCPG) related to personal computers (PCs) showed weak performance, with revenue of US$8.097 billion, down 5% year on year, and operating profit contracted at the same time. Management said that demand for server CPUs is high, but supply is the biggest constraint, and the company is easing the tight supply of Xeon processors by increasing factory capacity and optimizing yield. At the same time, the company said it is expected that the PC market's slowdown will continue until at least the first half of 2027. In terms of guidance, the company expected fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, and adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share, all of which fell far short of expectations. The pressure on performance was partly affected by the explosion at the Israeli factory, which is expected to reduce Q4 revenue by about 300 million US dollars and gross margin by about 200 basis points. The company also raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 from $18 billion to $20 billion, with further increases expected in 2027.
Amazon (AMZN.US) Q3 revenue fell slightly short of expectations, AWS revenue surged 39%, capital expenditure far exceeded expectations, and free cash flow was negative. According to financial reports, Amazon's Q3 net sales increased 12% year over year to US$2019.4 billion, slightly lower than market expectations; after dilution, earnings per share were 1.89 US dollars, down about 3% year on year. Core AWS revenue increased 39.3% year over year to US$45.98 billion, the highest quarterly growth rate in the past five years, with an operating profit margin of 38.7%. At the conference call, CEO Andy Jassy predicted that AWS would grow by more than 40% in 2027 and 2028, and is expected to achieve annual revenue of more than 1 trillion US dollars in the next 5 to 10 years, adding that AI is a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.” Meanwhile, e-commerce business revenue growth is slowing, and the company's holiday sales outlook shows that it may be difficult for the online business to rebound quickly. Capital expenditure for the third quarter reached US$77.26 billion, far higher than market expectations of US$57.47 billion; free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative US$42.36 billion. Looking ahead to Q4 2026, Amazon expects net revenue to be between 240 billion and 247 billion US dollars, up 12% to 16% year over year; operating profit is expected to be between 28.5 billion US dollars and 33.5 billion US dollars, up from 25 billion US dollars in the same period last year. The company maintains its capital expenditure forecast of approximately US$220 billion in 2026 and anticipates a significant increase in expenditure in 2027.
SanDisk (SNDK.US)'s Q1 revenue surged 378% year over year to US$11 billion, and data center business revenue soared nearly 17 times. Financial reports show that due to a surge in demand for NAND flash memory driven by AI infrastructure construction and rising product prices, SanDisk's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 reached US$11.031 billion, up 378% year on year and 23% month on month. Adjusted earnings per share were $49.51, up about 26% from $39.25 in the previous quarter, and $1.22 in the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 85.1%, up 55.2 percentage points from 29.9% in the same period last year, and 0.5 percentage points higher than 84.6% in the previous quarter. The data center business became SanDisk's fastest-growing business segment, with revenue reaching US$4.8 billion, up 61% from the previous quarter, and surging 1682% from the same period last year. The growth rate exceeded the company's estimate of overall market growth for the quarter. Looking ahead to the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, SanDisk expects revenue to be between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion, up about 12% from the first fiscal quarter's $11.031 billion; GAAP gross margin for the second fiscal quarter is expected to be between 84.4% and 85.4%, and non-GAAP gross margin is between 84.5% and 85.5%, which means profitability is expected to continue to remain at a high level; it is expected that adjusted earnings per share for the second fiscal quarter will be between $55 and $57, at a median value of $56, compared to 49.51 in the first fiscal quarter The dollar grew by about 13%.
Starbucks (SBUX.US)'s US business picked up more than expected in Q4, and growth guidance for the new fiscal year slowed to 4%. According to financial reports, Starbucks' Q4 revenue was 9.14 billion US dollars, down about 4% year on year, lower than market expectations of 9.22 billion US dollars. The decline was mainly due to the fact that China's retail business was not consolidated after switching to a joint venture licensing model with Boyu Capital. Earnings were strong, with adjusted earnings of $0.80 per share, up 54% year over year and higher than analysts' expectations of $0.72. Global same-store sales increased 7.2%, a fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, above market expectations of about 6%. Among them, same-store sales in the US increased by 7.7%, thanks to the refurbishment of the store and the strong performance of the coffee chain's fall menu products. The North American market grew by 7.9%; the international market increased by only 0.9%, lower than expected by 3.2%, and the decline in transaction volume offset the increase in customer unit prices. However, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the current growth rate in the future. Starbucks expects same-store sales in North America to grow by about 4% in the current fiscal year beginning in late September, indicating that after three consecutive quarters of growth of more than 7%, the growth rate is slowing.
Gilead Sciences (GILD.US) Q3 “Good News and Worries”: Sales guidelines for the whole year were raised, but Biktarvy will face 38% price reduction pressure on US health insurance. According to financial reports, Gilead Sciences' Q3 revenue was 8.3 billion US dollars, higher than market expectations of 7.8 billion US dollars; adjusted earnings per share were 2.55 US dollars, which greatly exceeded market expectations of 2.19 US dollars. Driven by double-digit growth in its flagship HIV drug pipeline, sales of Gilead Sciences Q3 products increased 13% year over year to US$8.3 billion, exceeding market expectations; “basic business” sales after excluding the COVID-19 drug Veklury (remdesivir) increased 16% year over year to US$8.2 billion, the fastest year-on-year basic business growth rate in more than ten years. Based on strong performance, Gilead raised its product sales guidelines for the full year 2026 to US$31 billion to US$31.3 billion (previously US$30.1 billion to US$30.4 billion). As of press release, Gilead Sciences's US stock rose more than 5% in the premarket on Friday.
Monthly active users hit new highs and it's hard to hide their concerns: Pinterest (PINS.US) Q3 revenue and profit fell short of expectations, and the Q4 guidelines were weak. According to financial reports, Pinterest's third-quarter revenue was US$1,174 million, up 12% year on year, lower than the average market forecast of US$1.21 billion; adjusted earnings per share were US$0.46, falling short of market expectations of US$0.49; adjusted EBITDA was US$339 million, which was also slightly lower than the forecast of US$348 million. In the third quarter, Pinterest's global monthly active users increased 10% year over year to 661 million, a record high. Among them, users in the US and Canada increased 4% to 107 million; European users increased 7% to 161 million; and users in other regions increased 13% to 394 million. But user growth didn't translate into revenue at the same time. In terms of guidance, Pinterest expects fourth-quarter revenue of US$1,425 million to US$1,475 million (median value of US$1.45 billion), lower than market expectations of US$1.52 billion; adjusted EBITDA guidance is US$538 million to US$588 million, which is also lower than market expectations of US$605 million. As of press time, Pinterest's pre-market shares fell more than 9% on Friday.
Revenue fell short of expectations, trading volume fell short, and Coinbase (COIN.US) relied on Bitcoin to reverse losses in Q3. According to financial reports, CoinbaseQ3's total revenue was US$1,216 million, down about 35% year on year and lower than the forecast of US$1,233 million. GAAP net profit of $719 million, diluted earnings of $2.51 per share, reversed previous consecutive losses — previously the market expected a net loss of approximately $35 million. But the profits came almost entirely from unrealized gains of $7.15 billion in its crypto asset portfolio—Bitcoin's price rose by around 39% in the third quarter. Transaction revenue of $590 million was lower than the previous year (-44%), but higher than market expectations of about $527 million; subscription and service revenue was $570 million, up 3% month-on-month, accounting for nearly half of revenue, of which stablecoin revenue was US$307 million; the new business became the biggest highlight, predicting that the market's annualized revenue would exceed US$200 million, and daily trading users would grow by more than 60% month-on-month, making it one of the fastest growing products in history. As of press release, US stocks fell more than 5% before the market on Friday.
Roblox (RBLX.US) fell short of expectations on Q3: child safety rectification pain continued. Roblox's third-quarter user numbers fell short of analysts' expectations, and people are questioning whether a new popular game can reverse the recent decline in user engagement due to stricter child safety measures. Financial reports showed that the company's revenue was US$1,572 million, up 16% year over year; net loss narrowed to US$230 million, with a loss of $0.32 per share, better than market expectations of $0.42; adjusted EBITDA of US$138 million, far higher than US$46 million in the same period last year. User data became a major drag. The number of daily active users (DAU) was 138 million, down 9% year on year, below analysts' expectations of 145.8 million; user participation time was about 34 billion hours, down 15% year over year. Bookings were $1,697 billion, down 12% year over year, but higher than Wall Street's estimate of $1.63 billion and the company's own guidance limit. The company attributed the decline to the 2025 high base and the impact of child safety measures. As of press release, Roblox's US stocks fell more than 17% in the premarket on Friday.
Sanofi (SNY.US) Q3 profit surpassed expectations, and strong demand from Dupixent made it difficult to hide concerns over the patent cliff. According to the data, Sanofi's net sales for the third quarter were 14.444 billion euros, up 16.2% year on year, and 14.3% at a fixed exchange rate; among them, Dupixent's sales reached 5.7 billion euros (about 6.4 billion US dollars), a sharp increase of 34.8% year over year, breaking 5 billion euros for the second time in history, which is also higher than analysts' expectations of 5.2 billion euros, driving profits beyond expectations. Earnings per share after excluding some items were €3.55, far higher than analysts' expectations of €2.80. With increased demand for its best-selling skin and asthma drug Dupixent (dupriumab), Sanofi raised full-year sales and profit expectations for the second consecutive quarter. The French pharmaceutical company said on Friday that at a fixed exchange rate, sales are expected to achieve a low double-digit percentage increase this year, higher than the 10% previously forecast; earnings per share after excluding some projects are expected to increase by a medium double digit percentage. However, Dupixent's sales performance also highlights Sanofi's deep dependence on this drug. The drug will begin to lose patent protection in the early 2030s, and Sanofi has yet to find a credible alternative revenue stream. As of press release, Sanofi's US stocks rose more than 3% in the premarket on Friday.
AstraZeneca (AZN.US) Q3 profit growth exceeded expectations, with oncology drugs being the main driver of growth. In terms of fixed exchange rate (CER), AstraZeneca's total Q3 revenue increased 7% year over year to US$16.209 billion, product sales of US$15.066 billion increased 5%, and alliance revenue of US$1,107 billion increased 36%. Core earnings per share were $2.79, up 19% year over year; reported earnings per share were $2.02, up 26%. According to MarketBeat's summary forecast, the market originally expected core earnings per share of the quarter to be 2.60 US dollars and revenue of 16.0 billion US dollars, which were actually about 7% and 1% higher, respectively. Structurally, the oncology business continues to be the main driver of growth: revenue of US$7.765 billion, up 17% year over year, accounting for 48% of total revenue. The company reaffirms its 2026 full-year CER guidelines: high single-digit growth in total revenue, low double-digit growth in core EPS, 18% — 22% core tax rate, and plans to raise the annual dividend to $3.30 per share. As of press release, AstraZeneca's US stock rose nearly 5% in the premarket on Friday.
ExxonMobil (XOM.US)'s Q3 performance exceeded expectations, and the refining business boom became the driving force. ExxonMobil's total Q3 revenue and other revenue was US$113.164 billion, up 32.7% year over year; net profit attributable to shareholders of US$15.413 billion, up 104%; reported earnings per share of US$3.72, an increase of 111%; and adjusted earnings per share of US$4.23. According to the market's aggregate forecast, the market originally expected adjusted earnings per share of 4.03 US dollars and revenue of 106.02 billion US dollars for the quarter, which was actually about 5% and 7% higher, respectively. The jump in profits mainly comes from refining. The Energy Products Division reported profit of US$7.169 billion, up 31% month-on-month, and adjusted profit of US$9.53 billion, up 121% month-on-month; the indicative refining profit margin for the quarter rose to $50.3 per barrel, compared to US$29.0 in the previous quarter, and the utilization rate of crude oil units at US Gulf Coast refineries reached 100%.
British Petroleum (BP.US) Q3 profits soared to an 18-year high: the refining business became a “money printer,” and the CEO reform ushered in a strong trend. Benefiting from soaring refining margins, BP's quarterly profit jumped to its highest level in 18 years, which gave CEO Meg O'Neill a strong boost to reform the British energy giant. British Petroleum said in a statement on Friday that adjusted net profit for the third quarter was 8.46 billion US dollars, up from 2.21 billion US dollars in the same period last year, and far exceeded the market's previous forecast of 7.3 billion US dollars. More than half of profits come from divisions that include refining and trading businesses. The customer and products division, which includes oil trading and refining operations, achieved a profit of $4.8 billion for the quarter, while the division's profit for the full year of 2025 was $5.3 billion. Net debt fell sharply from US$22.3 billion three months ago to US$13.87 billion, exceeding the target by one year ahead of the company's original plan.
High oil prices combined with strong refining business, and Chevron (CVX.US) Q3 net profit soared 180% year over year. Driven by high oil prices and record gross profit from US refining, the company's profit rose to the fourth highest in history and completely exceeded analysts' expectations. According to financial reports, Chevron's net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was 9.9 billion US dollars, up about 180% from 3.5 billion US dollars in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were 5.28 US dollars, which was 35 cents higher than analysts' average expectations. The refining business is a key engine for Chevron to exceed expectations this season. The business's third-quarter profit reached 4.93 billion US dollars, a record high, about four times that of the same period last year. Although the company reduced the share buyback scale to $2.5 billion, it is still within the guidance range for the whole year. In terms of capital allocation, Chevron mainly used excess profits for debt reduction for the second consecutive quarter, and was more conservative than Shell and Repsol (Repsol) — both of which raised the repurchase scale by more than 65%.
Key economic data and event forecasts
At 00:00 Beijing time the next day, 2027 FOMC Voting Committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the San Francisco Federal Reserve 2026 Economic Research Seminar
The next day at 00:30 Beijing time, 2028 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mussalem delivered a speech