Trustmark Corporation (NASDAQ:TRMK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.2% to US$44.84 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$210m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$1.00 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Trustmark after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Trustmark from four analysts is for revenues of US$900.9m in 2027. If met, it would imply a solid 9.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 5.5% to US$4.30. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$907.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.33 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Trustmark
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$50.10. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Trustmark analyst has a price target of US$55.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$48.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Trustmark is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Trustmark's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.6% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 7.7% per year. Trustmark is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Trustmark going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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