Shareholders might have noticed that CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (NYSE:CTO) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$19.59 in the past week. Revenues of US$47m beat expectations by 3.8%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of US$0.19 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, CTO Realty Growth's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$198.9m in 2027. This would be a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 35% to US$0.62 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$194.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.57 in 2027. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
See our latest analysis for CTO Realty Growth
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$24.40, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on CTO Realty Growth, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$23.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that CTO Realty Growth's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while CTO Realty Growth's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CTO Realty Growth's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple CTO Realty Growth analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for CTO Realty Growth (2 are potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.
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