Top 3 Things to Watch into the Energy Close

• December crude weekly settle versus $103.90: A settlement above the old high would be the highest close of the move and keep the $104.99 high in play. A settlement back below $102.00 could mark a failure at the top of the rising wedge and open $101.40.
• Election weekend headline risk: Fresh signs of post-election strikes could gap December through $105.00 Sunday night. Progress on the diplomatic outreach could pull it back toward $101.40 at the open.
• December nat gas at $2.93: A settlement below the old contract low would extend the selloff into new territory. A settlement back above $3.00 could turn the break into a failed move and spark short covering toward $3.08.

Energy Cross Asset Note

Crude is pushing to new highs heading into the final weekend before the US midterms. A top commander briefed the president on military options Thursday, and the president keeps signaling that airstrikes on Iran could resume after Tuesday’s vote. Tehran confirmed it received the vice president’s letter, but its lead negotiator said Iran’s positions on ending the war won’t be compromised. The pressure on shipping is building again. Two more tankers were attacked around Hormuz, one by a projectile and another by a small boat that attached explosives to its hull, and Saudi defenses intercepted a Houthi drone aimed at the Mecca region. Brent is up 12% in October, heading for a fourth straight monthly gain, and the expiring December Brent contract is trading about $4 over January, a sign of how tight prompt supply is. The broader backdrop keeps prices supported. Diesel is up almost 80% this year after a record high in September, and governments are easing where they can: France cut its diesel stock requirements, South Korea loosened export curbs, and Japan is scaling back gasoline subsidies. Ukraine has reportedly paused strikes on Russian refineries until after the midterms, while Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine. Industry leaders are now saying prices no longer look temporary given how depleted global inventories are. Israel’s results show Netanyahu’s bloc short of a majority, so coalition talks will run into next week. In nat gas, Thursday’s EIA report showed an 80 bcf build against a 72 bcf estimate and a 77 bcf five-year average, the first above-average injection in weeks. More above-normal builds are expected over the next three weeks, forecasts call for warmth across the eastern half of the country through November 7, and production is running 5.5% above last year while demand is down more than 9%. Producers are starting to respond with rig cuts, and hedge funds hold a record short. Overseas demand remains strong, with Asian LNG near $33 and new buyers lining up for US cargoes. For clients, crude carries real gap risk over this weekend in both directions, and it’s sitting at the top of its recent range, so position size matters more than direction heading into the close. In nat gas, the fundamentals still lean lower, but a deeply oversold market with a record short position can produce sharp short-covering rallies, which makes chasing the lows a poor trade.

Crude Oil - The Setup

Crude Oil - The Technicals

CRUDE OIL 

Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $103.98, up $1.96 (1.92%) | Session high $104.99, low $102.43

Chart Setup
Thursday eased 78 cents to settle at $102.00, holding above the $101.40 breakout point. This morning’s rally carried December through the October 23 high at $103.90 to a new high of the move at $104.99, but the push stalled right at the upper edge of the rising wedge near $105.00, and price has backed off about a dollar. The wedge has framed the rally since early August, with the lower boundary now near $92.25. Rising wedges often lose momentum near the upper edge, so today’s settlement relative to the old $103.90 high carries extra weight. December sits about $7.80 above the rising 20 day at $96.20, with the 50 day at $91.24.

Key Levels Above

• $104.99 (today’s high, upper edge of the rising wedge near $105.00)

Current Price: $103.98

Key Levels Below

• $103.90 (October 23 high, broken today)
• $103.45 (Wednesday high)
• $102.78 (Wednesday settle)
• $102.43 (today’s low)
• $102.00 (Thursday settle)

Bias
The old high at $103.90 is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would be the highest close of the move and keeps $104.99 in play. A settlement through the upper edge of the wedge near $105.00 would signal the rally is accelerating rather than tiring. A settlement back below Thursday’s $102.00 would mark a failure at the top of the wedge and opens $101.40, then $100.56. For sidelined traders, buying at the upper edge of the wedge into a weekend before a major election offers poor risk. A pullback toward $102.00 to $102.78 gives a better entry with a defined stop.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 10.26.26)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y 

Natural Gas - The Setup

Natural Gas - The Technicals

NATURAL GAS 

Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $2.91, down $0.04 (1.36%) | Session high $2.93, low $2.88

Chart Setup
Thursday’s 8 cent drop settled December at $2.95, its first close below $3.00. This morning it broke Monday’s $2.93 low to set a new contract low at $2.88. December is down about 76 cents from the mid-October high near $3.64, and momentum is deeply oversold. Today’s high stalled right at the old $2.93 low, which now acts as resistance from below. All four averages are overhead, with the 20 day at $3.29 below a falling 50 day at $3.40. There is no history on the December chart below this morning’s low.

Key Levels Above

• $3.08 (Wednesday high)
• $3.03 (Wednesday settle)
• $3.00 (first settlement below it Thursday)
• $2.95 (Thursday settle)
• $2.93 (old contract low, today’s high)

Current Price: $2.91

Key Levels Below

• $2.88 (today’s low, new contract low)

Bias
The old contract low at $2.93 is the level to manage against, now from below. A settlement under it confirms the breakdown and keeps the selloff pointed into new territory with nothing underneath. A settlement back above $2.95 to $3.00 would turn the break into a failed move and, with funds holding a record short, could force covering toward $3.03 to $3.08. For sidelined traders, selling new lows in a market this oversold and this crowded is late. Sellers may get a better entry on a bounce back into $2.95 to $3.03.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 10.26.26)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame  (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y 

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

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