J.P. Morgan strategists, including Jay Barry and Pankaj Vohra, said in a report that US short-term treasury bond issuance is expected to continue to grow, and privately held issuance will increase by another 991 billion US dollars in 2027; therefore, the core question is whether demand can keep up with supply. “We're seeing some headwinds in this regard.” They wrote and pointed out that unless there are major market disruptions such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 or regional banking pressure events in 2023, the growth rate of money market funds' managed assets is expected to be similar to the growth rate during the larger capital inflow period in 2024 or 2025. There is still room for foreign official investors to return to a more stable trend of buying short-term treasury bonds, because the recent reduction in holdings is more of a tactical adjustment than a structural change. However, strategists believe that stablecoins do not have a similar logic, unless the crypto market rebounds or regulations become more clear.

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