Neste stock closed at €28.34 after Q3 2026 earnings, capping a tough stretch with the share price down about 9% over the past week and 13% over the past month. That short-term pain collides with a surprisingly strong headline number. The refinery and renewables group posted Q3 basic earnings per share of €1.35 on revenue of €6,566m, backed by very robust profitability in Renewable Products and Oil Products.
For traders focused on this month, the move looks bruising. For anyone thinking in years, the key story is how this profit engine lines up with a trailing P/E of 8.9 and a discounted cash flow value near €65 per share.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €6,566m vs. €4,534m (up about 45%)
- Net Income, excl. extra items (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €1,037m vs. €106m (very large increase, roughly 9.8x)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €1.35 vs. €0.14 (very large increase, close to 9.6x)
- Trailing 12-month Net Income, excl. extra items (TTM to Q3 2026 vs. TTM to Q3 2025): €2,449m vs. €189m (very large increase, around 13x)
Prefer clean visual charts over slogging through another wall of earnings tables and ratios? See Neste Oyj's full financial picture with an at-a-glance view of its valuation, analyst commentary and more in the interactive company report for Neste Oyj.
Evaluating Neste’s Profit-Engine Bull Case
The bullish storyline hinges on Neste turning project spending and operational tweaks into a structurally stronger renewables machine rather than a one quarter sugar hit.
"Bullish analysts expect Neste Oyj to compound its renewables EBITDA by scaling Rotterdam 2, lifting renewables utilization, and sustaining strong margins supported by tightening renewable fuel mandates and waste-based feedstock access."
Q3 gives partial backing. Renewable Products EBITDA reached about €1b with record ~1.3 million tonne volumes and utilization near 97%, while the performance program’s annualized impact has risen to about €697m. Those are concrete milestones on utilization and earnings quality. The missing piece is Rotterdam 2, where higher budget and a late 2027 technical start mean the capacity pillar of that thesis remains unproven for now.
One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Neste Oyj should trade.
Neste bear case sharpened by Rotterdam delay
For critics of Neste the key worry is execution risk on big ticket renewables projects rather than today’s profits.
"If the Rotterdam expansion and future debottlenecking phases encounter delays or less efficient ramp up than anticipated, the timing mismatch between high CapEx, interest costs and cash inflows could weigh on free cash flow and earnings in the medium term."
Q3 confirms this concern. Management raised the Rotterdam budget and pushed technical start to late 2027 with commercial ramp in early 2028, so there is no material contribution in 2027 despite heavy capex and ongoing turnaround spending. Strong current EBITDA softens the hit, but the schedule slip directly supports this part of the bearish script.
Hunt Quiet Mispricings In Plain Sight
Neste Oyj reports show that a busy earnings season can still leave pricing questions unresolved. The real opportunity is finding stocks that could be undervalued before the market corrects them.
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