December Nymex natural gas (NGZ26) closed down -0.054 (-1.83%) on Friday.
Dec nat-gas prices fell again Friday on continued warm weather and bearish carry-over from Thursday’s larger-than-expected rise in weekly EIA inventories (+80 bcf vs. a consensus +72 bcf).
The Commodity Weather Group said Friday that forecasts have shifted warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across the eastern half of the US through November 8.
US (lower-48) dry gas production Friday was 114.5 bcf/day (+6.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Friday was 73.0 bcf/day (-10.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Friday were 20.8 bcf/day (-0.1% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Thursday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended October 24 rose +1.0% y/y to 73,484 GWh (gigawatt-hours). Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending October 24 rose +3.3% y/y to 4,422,630 GWh.
Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, showing an increase of +80 bcf in the week ended October 23, above the +72 bcf consensus and the +77 bcf 5-year average. As of October 23, nat-gas inventories were down -4.1% y/y and +1.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of October 24, gas storage in Europe was 75% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 90% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended October 23 fell by -2 to 130 rigs, just below the 3-year high of 135 rigs posted on September 25.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.