Nolato stock closed at SEK52.1 on Friday, leaving investors wrestling with a red 7 day stretch and a softer 30 day run just as fresh Q3 2026 figures hit the tape. At first glance the headline looks fine. Sales landed at SEK2.5b and basic earnings per share printed 0.64 SEK.
The real story sits in profitability. Group margins have come under pressure, with net profit sitting at SEK172m and trailing net income running below prior years. Short term traders are reacting to a tired chart. Long term holders are now asking how much of this squeeze is temporary and how much is structural for Nolato.
If you appreciate Nolato's exposure to medical demand but are concerned that compressed profitability could persist, compare this setup with our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks (202 results)
Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK2,500m vs SEK2,342m (up about 7%)
- Net Income (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK172m vs SEK215m (down about 20%)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK0.64 vs SEK0.80 (down about 20%)
- Net Margin (Trailing 12 Months vs Prior Year): 7.0% vs 8.2% (compressed by about 1.2 percentage points)
Earnings are one thing, but investors who care about what Nolato is really worth tend to focus on the cash flowing through the business over time rather than a single quarter's profit line.
Looking at Nolato's cash generation and applying it to a discounted cash flow framework, the stock could be a striking 44% undervalued.
Nolato bull case: medical and materials mix on trial
The optimistic story says Nolato can lean on richer business lines to lift earnings quality over time.
"Analysts expect Nolato to keep shifting its mix toward Medical Solutions and higher-margin materials, with ongoing global capacity build-out and cost pass-through supporting earnings quality over time."
Q3 shows that direction, but with friction. Medical Solutions grew to SEK1,469m with 9% organic gains, and the materials unit in Engineered Solutions posted 27% organic growth and now accounts for 23% of group sales. Yet adjusted EBITA margin still slipped from 11.7% to 10.5% and Medical margins eased to 11.3% as ramp-up and input costs offset the richer mix.
Nolato bear case: input costs and ramps press margins
The concern is that rising costs and choppy demand keep eating into Medical and Engineered profitability.
"The main thing that has to go right is that Nolato successfully ramps large programs such as the GLP-1 drug delivery contract, while keeping raw material inflation, end market volatility and group overheads from eroding Medical and Engineered Solutions margins."
Recent numbers give this worry some backing. Group net margin on a trailing basis is down from 8.2% to 7.0%. Medical Solutions EBITA margin softened as Hungary and U.S. programs ramp. Engineered Solutions faced weaker automotive and slightly lower margins. Management expects raw-material lag effects to ease after Q3, but overheads tied to acquisitions and integration still weigh on earnings.
Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the higher figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there.
Hunt For Mispriced Earners
Nolato just reminded you how quickly margins can drift even when headline numbers look steady. The real opportunity is spotting businesses that could be undervalued before the market catches up.
- Company 1 - 50% below our estimate - targets higher margin engine and component services as recent acquisitions are folded into a unified aviation aftermarket platform.
- Company 2 - 40% below our estimate - expands branded and private label coconut drinks as retailers rely on it to develop a maturing category.
- Company 3 - 21% below our estimate - wins long-term managed services contracts as health insurers shift claims and care management work into its AI-enabled platform.
That is three of the list. See every one of the 201 undervalued companies on it →
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