If Nebius Group landing a multi year AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft caught your eye in late 2025, the real story for investors unfolded quietly over the next ten months. For Nebius Group shareholders, the return from the start of the year was 71.3%, including dividends. If you had been deciding on 1 January whether to buy, what would you have needed to believe about that Microsoft contract to feel comfortable owning the risk?
The move put Nebius Group in the middle of this trade. Scan 54 AI infrastructure stocks for other companies exposed to it.
The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing Up On Nebius Group
The shares cost US$83.7 at the start of the period, and Nebius Group sat between two very different stories about what that Microsoft agreement might mean.
On the upbeat side, one view said the stock was worth a Fair Value of US$97.4. This was a rough guide to the price implied if revenue grew 160.9% and the business reached a 12.7% profit margin on a future P/E of 64.0x.
The more cautious camp saw a Fair Value of US$75. This was based on the idea that revenue growth of 123.1% and a 13.0% margin would still be offset by a richer 76.7x future P/E and heavy capital expenditure and regulatory costs pressuring free cash flow.
What The Evidence Did To The Nebius Group Argument
Nebius Group reported Q2 2026 revenue of US$582.3 million compared with US$105.1 million a year earlier, which supported the view that large AI contracts could drive very strong top line expansion. The same filing showed net income moving from a US$502.5 million profit to a US$190.4 million loss, so profitability in the more optimistic case remained unproven. Overall, the evidence pointed in both directions.
The lesson is simple. When an investment thesis leans heavily on operating leverage, it is important to track revenue and profit separately. For the next Nebius in your watchlist, check whether rising sales are matched by improving net income, rather than focusing only on bigger contracts or partnerships.
What Today's Nebius Group Price Already Assumes
With Nebius Group at US$154, this Narrative’s Fair Value sits below the current price, framing today’s level as demanding rather than cheap. The focus is less on AI demand and more on whether large build plans and partner funding stay on track.
A buyer now is effectively assuming Nebius can fund and execute a roughly 5 GW, capital intensive expansion while protecting future margins. The key question is how the risk of tighter credit and industry consolidation weighs on that assumption.
"The numbers imply that the current share price assumes Nebius Group successfully funds and executes a rapid 5 GW build out and sustains very strong growth and profitability. This bearish narrative views that assumption as leaving the stock overvalued."
One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its lower Fair Value, assumptions and all
How Could You Get There Earlier?
You may be late to this rally, but that does not have to mean arriving late to every opportunity. Start with companies whose prices leave room for a different view of their future. Here are three trading below our estimates.
- Company 1 - 48% below our estimate - co-designs complex hardware with customers through a sketch-to-scale model embedding owned intellectual property.
- Company 2 - 42% below our estimate - shifts toward higher margin integrated data center systems, software, services and broader enterprise channel partnerships.
- Company 3 - 20% below our estimate - expands payment accounts, cards and platform integrations that deepen fee and interest income streams.
Three companies from the same screener. Open all 30 potentially undervalued companies →
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