Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) has just locked in a 20-year LNG supply agreement with QatarEnergy tied to its Louisiana LNG Project, giving investors fresh information on future demand alongside recent production, revenue and guidance updates.
Recent trading has been constructive, with a 1-day share price return of 1.80% and a 30-day share price gain of 4.55% helping push Woodside Energy Group to A$33.33. That move comes on top of a 40.87% year to date share price return and a 1-year total shareholder return of 41.55%. This suggests momentum has been building as investors weigh the long-term LNG contract, higher reported quarterly operating revenue and the updated production guidance together.
Scan other LNG and resource producers showing similar contract momentum and production scale through our hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (12 results) for comparison alongside Woodside Energy Group.
So is Woodside Energy Group’s strong share price run mostly about a healthier, better contracted LNG business, or has sentiment simply swung in its favour for now, leaving valuation to sort out the truth next?
Most Popular Narrative: 8.9% Undervalued
On the narrative view, Woodside Energy Group’s A$36.60 fair value sits above the current A$33.33 share price. This puts the recent rally in a different light for anyone weighing contract wins against valuation drift.
At A$36.602 per share, Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) appears reasonably valued based on its existing operations and near-term production growth. Woodside reports in US dollars and recorded 2025 operating revenue of US$12.9 billion, underlying profit of US$2.65 billion and earnings of US$1.43 per share. Using an assumed exchange rate of US$0.70 per Australian dollar gives earnings of approximately A$2.04 per share and a P/E ratio of around 18 times.
See why 19 investors see Woodside Energy Group as 9% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of A$36.60 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, Woodside Energy Group’s narrative leans on major LNG projects hitting milestones as planned and on debt of about US$9.3b remaining comfortably manageable.
Find out about the key risks to this Woodside Energy Group narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed signals around Woodside Energy Group often create the sharpest opportunities for fresh thinking. Move quickly, review both sides of the story, then test your own thesis against the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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