Shareholders of Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$132 following its latest second-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$582m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Boot Barn Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.73 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Boot Barn Holdings from 17 analysts is for revenues of US$2.58b in 2027. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.9% to US$8.87. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.06 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
See our latest analysis for Boot Barn Holdings
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 12% to US$184, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Boot Barn Holdings analyst has a price target of US$248 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$140. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Boot Barn Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Boot Barn Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Boot Barn Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Boot Barn Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Boot Barn Holdings' future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Boot Barn Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Boot Barn Holdings analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Boot Barn Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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