Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 26% over the past week following OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's (NASDAQ:OSW) latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$277m were in line with what the analysts predicted, OneSpaWorld Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.28 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the six analysts covering OneSpaWorld Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$1.13b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 27% to US$1.06. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.05 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for OneSpaWorld Holdings
The consensus price target rose 5.8% to US$33.00despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of OneSpaWorld Holdings' earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values OneSpaWorld Holdings at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$29.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 7.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than OneSpaWorld Holdings.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for OneSpaWorld Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with OneSpaWorld Holdings , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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