Old National Bancorp (ONB) is back in focus after releasing third quarter 2026 results, issuing full year guidance that calls for EPS growth above 15%, and updating investors on its ongoing share repurchase activity.
At a share price of $25.09, Old National Bancorp has given investors a year to date share price return of 11.26%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 25.81% and 3 year total shareholder return of 86.61% point to momentum that has built over time. This comes even though the 90 day share price performance has slipped 5.82% as the latest earnings guidance, share repurchases and higher net charge offs reset expectations around both growth potential and risk.
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Old National Bancorp now trades at a double discount, both to analyst targets and to some estimates of intrinsic value, after a recent pullback. Is that gap reflecting opportunity, or simply higher risk now priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 14% Undervalued
The most widely followed narrative pegs Old National Bancorp's fair value at $29.30, above the recent $25.09 close, and ties that gap directly to earnings power and capital returns.
High capital generation with a CET1 ratio just over 11%, double digit growth in tangible book value per share and payout ratios around 64 to 65% while still repurchasing 8.3 million shares in the first half of 2026 creates ongoing capacity for dividends and buybacks that can support EPS and per share value.
See why 14 investors see Old National Bancorp as 14% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $29.30 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, Old National Bancorp faces pressure if commercial lending competition squeezes its roughly 3.5% net interest margin, or if higher credit costs curb its current capital returns.
Find out about the key risks to this Old National Bancorp narrative.
Next Steps
Sentiment around Old National Bancorp is mixed, so use that as a starting point rather than the final word and pressure test the numbers yourself. To see what upside focused investors are watching, review the 5 key rewards.
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