IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) drew fresh attention after new ESMO 2026 data on IDE849 in relapsed small cell lung cancer and neuroendocrine carcinomas, as well as broader darovasertib updates in metastatic and primary uveal melanoma.
These ESMO readouts arrived after a choppy few months for IDEAYA Biosciences, with the 30-day share price return down 16.81% and the 7-day move lower by 7.92%. However, the 1-year total shareholder return is still slightly positive at 0.31%, and the 5-year total shareholder return sits at 35.54%. This suggests long term holders have seen modest gains even as short term momentum has cooled.
Spot opportunities beyond IDEAYA Biosciences by scanning a hand-picked set of oncology and biotech players with strong balance sheets and fundamentals in our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results).Bulls view IDEAYA Biosciences as a pipeline-focused company whose shares have been temporarily marked down after a sharp pullback. Bears, in contrast, see a rich valuation supported by unprofitable clinical trials. Which perspective do the current numbers better support as you evaluate the stock today?
Most Popular Narrative: 39% Undervalued
Against a last close of $31.96, the most followed narrative pegs IDEAYA Biosciences at a fair value of $52.75, which implies investors are not fully pricing in its pipeline and cash position.
The current valuation implies that the market is not fully crediting IDEAYA Biosciences for the potential of darovasertib, the MTAP/CDKN2A/KRAS franchise, the DLL3 Topo-ADC program, and a cash balance of about US$1.24b with a stated runway into 2030.
See why 1 investors see IDEAYA Biosciences as 39% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $52.75 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the bullish IDEAYA Biosciences story leans heavily on smooth darovasertib approval and clear differentiation for IDE849 in a crowded DLL3 field, where setbacks could quickly flip sentiment.
Find out about the key risks to this IDEAYA Biosciences narrative.
Another View: Cash Flows Point The Other Way
While the analyst narrative tags IDEAYA Biosciences as undervalued at a fair value of $52.75, the Simply Wall St DCF model tells a different story. On that measure, IDYA at around $31.96 is trading above an estimated future cash flow value of $20.35, which suggests an overvalued setup instead. Which narrative do you give more weight to when cash flows and sentiment disagree?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out IDEAYA Biosciences for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 29 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Sentiment around IDEAYA Biosciences is clearly split, so act while the data is fresh and weigh the upside against the risks yourself. To frame that debate with a single snapshot, take a look at 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.
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