The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huajin Securities released a research report saying that in the retrading history, the trend of A-shares in November was mainly driven by factors such as policies and external events, fundamentals, and liquidity. Looking at the moment, the November policy and external events may be positive, and the economy and profits may recover. Liquidity is likely to remain loose. A-shares may continue to fluctuate and bottom in November, and the long-term slow bullish trend will not change. In terms of industry allocation, November proposed a balanced allocation of some technological growth and undervalued blue chips.
The main views of Huajin Securities are as follows:
In the review history, the trend of A-shares in November was mainly driven by factors such as policies and external events, fundamentals, and liquidity. (1) Since 2010, the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated in November, rising 9 times and falling 7 times out of 16. (2) The trend of A-shares in November was mainly driven by factors such as policies and external events, fundamentals, and liquidity. First, policies and external events are the core factors affecting the trend of A-shares in November: first, positive policies or external events may cause the Shanghai Composite Index to rise in November; secondly, policy tightening or negative external events may cause A-shares to weaken in November. Second, fundamentals are also an important factor affecting the trend of A-shares in November: First, the recovery in economic indicators such as real estate sales or consumption growth may cause the Shanghai Composite Index to rise in November; secondly, the better performance growth rate in the second year may also cause the Shanghai Composite Index to rise in November. Third, liquidity also had a certain impact on the performance of A-shares in November.
Looking at it now, A-shares are likely to continue to fluctuate and bottom out in November. (1) The November policy and external events may be positive. First, the November policy may still be positive. Second, external risks may still be limited in November: first, there is a possibility that the US-Iran conflict will escalate further after the US midterm elections; second, Sino-US relations may remain stable in November. (2) The economy and profits are likely to recover in November. First, the economy is likely to continue to be low in November: first, real estate investment may continue to be weak in November, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment may have stabilized and rebounded; secondly, exports may continue to maintain a high year-on-year growth rate in November; finally, consumption growth may continue to stabilize and pick up in November. Second, corporate profits are likely to continue to trend upward in November. (3) Liquidity is likely to remain relaxed in November. First, macro-liquidity may remain loose in November: first, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates in the short term; second, domestic central banks may continue to increase capital investment in November. Second, capital inflows to the stock market may improve marginally in November.
Growth and consumption styles may be relatively dominant in November, and the large and small plate styles may be balanced. (1) November growth and consumption style are likely to be relatively dominant. The first is review history. Of the 16 years since 2010, growth and consumption style are relatively dominant: out of 16 years since 2010, 5 years of growth and 4 years of consumption ranked first in November. Second, from a current perspective, the growth and consumption style of November this year is likely to be relatively dominant: first, the growth industry is booming in November, policy support, and liquidity easing; second, consumer support policies may continue to be implemented in November, and institutional capital allocation may be biased towards stable consumer industries. (2) The November market style is likely to be balanced. The first is the history of retrading. In November, the ultra-large market and the small to medium market had the upper hand: in the 16 years since 2010, the ultra-large market had the highest increase in 6 years, the small market in 5 years, and the micro market in 3 years. Second, looking at this year, the November market style is likely to be balanced: first, liquidity may continue to be relaxed in November, which is beneficial to the small and medium market style; second, technological growth may continue to be booming in November, which is beneficial to the small and medium market style; third, the direction of policy support in November is still technology and consumption, which is beneficial to the medium and large markets respectively; fourth, domestic market sentiment is weak in November, which may be beneficial to the large market style.
November industry allocation: It is recommended to balance industries such as technological growth and undervalued blue chips, which have overfallen. (1) In November, some industries such as technological growth and consumption may have a relative advantage. The first is the review of history. The improved economy and policy-supported industries performed relatively well in November. Second, from a current perspective, some technological growth and consumer industry performance may be relatively superior in November this year. (2) In the current growing secondary industry, semiconductors, other electronics, communication equipment, etc. are relatively cost-effective. (3) The proposed dipping allocation in November: First, pharmaceuticals (AI pharmaceuticals), robotics, media (AI applications, games), computers (AI applications), military (commercial aerospace), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communications (AI hardware), non-ferrous metals, electronics (AI electricity), etc.; second, undervalued blue-chip industries such as consumption, petrochemicals, electricity, and coal.
Risk warning: Historical experience may not be applicable in the future, policies have changed beyond expectations, and economic recovery falls short of expectations.