As you might know, Harvia Oyj (HEL:HARVIA) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €54m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just €0.37 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Harvia Oyj after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Harvia Oyj's four analysts is for revenues of €256.5m in 2027. This would reflect a solid 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 31% to €2.05. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €259.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.20 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Harvia Oyj
The average price target fell 6.5% to €46.75, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Harvia Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €48.00 and the most bearish at €46.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Harvia Oyj is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Harvia Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Harvia Oyj to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Harvia Oyj's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Harvia Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Harvia Oyj going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It might also be worth considering whether Harvia Oyj's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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