The Zhitong Finance App learned that Kerui Real Estate Research released an analysis report on the investment and land acquisition of Chinese real estate companies from January to October 2026. In October, the construction area of commercial land auctions nationwide was 147.755 million square meters, up 153.4% from the previous month, up 58.8%; the transaction amount was 420.97 billion yuan, up 106.5% from the previous month, up 73.2% year on year; the average transaction price was 2,850 yuan/square meter, down 18.5% from the previous month and 9.1% year on year. Looking ahead to the future market, the supply side is the key variable that determines the next trend. As the annual land supply plan enters the final stage, local governments may once again experience a centralized land promotion window in the fourth quarter to achieve the land concession revenue target at the end of the year, and monthly fluctuations in total supply will continue. However, the supply floor in October was drastically reduced by 80.5% month-on-month after the concentration of volume in September, which also reflects the wait-and-see mentality of local governments with insufficient willingness to “exchange price for volume” in the context of limited market carrying capacity. The actual recovery in the pace of land supply still needs to be observed.
In January and October, the volume of local auctions in 300 cities increased by 153.4% month-on-month, and the premium rate plummeted to 1.10%
In October, the construction area of commercial land auctions nationwide was 147.755 million square meters, up 153.4% month-on-month, up 58.8%; the transaction amount was 420.97 billion yuan, up 106.5% month-on-month and 73.2% year-on-year; the average transaction price was 2,850 yuan/square meter, down 18.5% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year.
In terms of market popularity, the average transaction premium rate for commercial land in 300 cities was 1.10%, down 4.9 percentage points from month to month, the lowest in a single month since May 2024. Low-premium (including reserve price) transactions have become mainstream in the current land market. Housing companies' bidding strategies have changed from “competing for scarcity” to “only taking determination”, and the market has entered the “deterministic pricing” stage. In the short term, the land market continues to be characterized by “low total volume operation and rational return of popularity”, but the scarce value of high-quality land plots in core cities is still stable in a low-heat environment, and overall investment confidence is still at the stage of building a stable base with the support of core assets.
Figure 1 Monthly premium rate trend for commercial land in 300 cities from May 2024 to October 2026
Data source: CRIC
In terms of key cities, the supply of residential land in the key 50 cities in October was 9.44,700 square meters, down 61.5% year on year and 80.5% month on month; the construction area was 18.0755 million square meters, up 21.3% year on year and 26.7% month on month; total transaction price was 102,334 billion yuan, down 0.5% year on year and 15.0% month on month; average transaction price was 5,662 yuan/square meter, down 18.0% year on year and 32.9% month on month; the average premium rate fell to 1.01%. In terms of transaction structure, Nantong, Changzhou, and Nanjing ranked in the top three in total transaction prices. Jiangsu cities occupied 8 seats in the TOP10, accounting for 84.3% in total. High-value plots in core cities of Xiamen and Guangzhou support the top of the unit price list, and the definitive value of high-quality assets in core cities is still prominent in a low-heat environment.
In terms of key plots, the 2026P10-1 plot in Siming District of Xiamen was contested by China Resources Land (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. at a base price of 4.887 billion yuan, with a floor price of about 48,000 yuan/square meter, both topped the total price list and unit price list for residential land in the 50 key cities in October; the 2026P12 plot in Huli District of Xiamen ranked second in the total price list with 2,586 billion yuan; the KXCGS-I4-8 plot in Huangpu District of Guangzhou became the only land with a premium of 1.65 billion yuan and 26.61% Deal. The cities on the premium rate list are scattered. Cities such as Nantong, Jingdezhen, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, and Dalian were all shortlisted for land plots, reflecting ongoing competition for partial land supply. However, the premium rate at the top of the list fell sharply from September, and ultra-high premium transactions disappeared.
Table 1 Top 10 premium rates for residential land transactions in 50 key cities in October 2026
Data source: CRIC
2. The trend of land acquisition thresholds for the top 100 is fragmented. The total price and construction surface hit new lows in the past five years, and the product value threshold bucked the trend and rebounded
From January to October 2026, the land acquisition threshold for 100 typical sample companies ended the unilateral downward trend. The thresholds for the top 100 goods value, total price, and construction surface were 4.42 billion yuan, 1.76 billion yuan, and 343,000 square meters respectively, up 3.3%, down 11.6%, and 7.5%, respectively. Among them, the total price and construction threshold were the lowest in the same period in the past five years; the price threshold rebounded after a continuous decline, increasing 140 million yuan from 4.28 billion yuan in the same period last year, and is close to the level of 4.5 billion yuan in the same period in 2024. The three major thresholds have changed from “simultaneous decline” to “one rise and two falls”, and the pattern is clearly divided.
The threshold value shifts from co-contraction to differentiation, reflecting structural changes in corporate investment behavior. The total price and construction threshold continue to fall, indicating that the bottom 100 companies are focusing more on small plots with a manageable total price; the rebound in the value threshold indicates that the companies entering the list have clearly increased their requirements for the efficiency of land value conversion. Although a few leading housing enterprises are actively filling up positions in core cities, they have not been able to drive the overall recovery of the market. Most companies still choose to wait and see, and are in a dilemma where core cities “can't compete” and non-core cities “don't want to take”. Judging from strategic choices, housing enterprises are increasingly focusing on high-quality land plots with strong certainty, and the binding relationship between land acquisition efforts and removal expectations continues to deepen.
Table 2 New land storage value, total price, and construction threshold for typical 100 enterprises from January to October 2026
Unit: 100 million yuan, 10,000 square meters
Data source: CRIC
3. The amount of land acquired by the top 100 companies invested was 7499 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 30%
From January to October 2026, the total amount of land acquired by the 100 typical sample companies continued to decline year-on-year. Among them, the value, amount, and construction area were 1569.80 billion yuan, 749.92 billion yuan, and 69.187 million square meters respectively, down 19.3%, 27.4%, and 8.4% from the previous year. The value of goods was the second lowest in the same period in the past five years, only higher than the same period in 2024. The amount was the second lowest in the same period in the past five years, slightly higher than the same period in 2024, and the construction area was the lowest in the same period in the past five years.
The decline in land acquisition amounts significantly exceeded the decline in construction surface, and was the result of a combination of total volume contraction and falling prices. On the one hand, under the “controlled volume and quality improvement” of core cities, the overall land supply shrank; more importantly, the price side fell simultaneously — the average premium rate for commercial land in the 300 cities fell to 1.10% in October, and the 50 key cities were only 1.01%, all the lowest in a single month during the year. Low-premium (including reserve price) transactions became mainstream. High-value land in core cities such as Xiamen was also sold at reserve prices. Combined transaction structures sank into the second- and third-tier metropolitan areas, which together lowered the average transaction price. This also confirms that the contraction of housing companies' willingness to bid has further extended from “acquiring less land” to “not chasing prices.” Judging from the trend in the past five years, the current investment scale is less than 60% of the same period in 2022, and industry investment is still in the process of deep adjustment.
Figure 2. Comparison of the total amount of land storage added by typical 100 enterprises from January to September 2026 with previous years (100 million yuan, 10,000 square meters)
Data source: CRIC
4. The pattern dominated by central and state-owned enterprises was further strengthened, with 8 seats in the TOP10
From January to October 2026, central state-owned enterprises occupied 8 seats among the top 10 housing enterprises for land acquisition. Only the Binjiang Group was shortlisted for private housing enterprises. Greentown China, a mixed ownership enterprise, ranked 7th, and the pattern dominated by central state-owned enterprises was further strengthened. China Resources Land returned to the top of the list with 82.67 billion yuan, followed by Poly Development with 80.60 billion yuan, while Zhonghai Real Estate and China Merchants Shekou ranked third and fourth with 53.89 billion yuan and 50.49 billion yuan respectively. Compared with the same period last year, there was a clear rotation in the ranking of the leading factions.
Judging from the intensity of investment, the TOP10 has an echelon pattern of “leading the top four and subsequent gaps”. The four real estate companies China Resources Land, Poly Development, Zhonghai Real Estate, and China Merchants Shekou all acquired more than 50 billion yuan, totaling 267.65 billion yuan, accounting for 58.8% of the total land acquisition in the TOP10. The scale exceeds the sum of the six companies ranked 5th to 10th. Among them, China Resources Land and Poly have both surpassed 80 billion yuan and are in the first tier; Zhonghai Real Estate and China Merchants Shekou are in the 50 to 54 billion yuan range. The difference between the two is only 3.4 billion yuan, which is a distance from the 5th place C&D Real Estate. In terms of land acquisition sales ratio, most housing enterprises are in the 0.27-0.47 range. Guomao Real Estate, Yuexiu Real Estate, and China Resources Land are relatively active. Overall, the investment contraction trend of leading housing enterprises has not changed, and “investing with sales and focusing on the core” is still the mainstream strategy.
Table 3 Investment performance unit of the top ten enterprises in terms of land acquisition amount from January to October 2026:100 million yuan
Data source: CRIC
5. Future market outlook: continued operation at a low level, and the end of the year may meet the storage window
Looking ahead to the future market, the supply side is the key variable that determines the next trend. As the annual land supply plan enters the final stage, local governments may once again experience a centralized land promotion window in the fourth quarter to achieve the land concession revenue target at the end of the year, and monthly fluctuations in total supply will continue. However, the supply floor in October was drastically reduced by 80.5% month-on-month after the concentration of volume in September, which also reflects the wait-and-see mentality of local governments with insufficient willingness to “exchange price for volume” in the context of limited market carrying capacity. The actual recovery in the pace of land supply still needs to be observed.
On the enterprise side, after experiencing early inventory replenishment, leading central state-owned enterprises still have land storage gaps in core cities. The sale of high-quality land plots at the end of the year will be their last storage window during the year. At that time, the transaction performance of high-value land in core cities may pick up marginally. However, most housing companies' strategy of “fixing investment with sales and focusing on the core” has not changed. Funding and removal expectations still dominate land acquisition efforts. The overall recovery of investment still lacks support, and the pattern of differentiation among enterprises will further deepen.
On the policy side, the “828 New Deal” introduced at the end of August is entering a period of centralized implementation and observation of the effects. This round of policies is a collaborative effort between supply and demand: on the demand side, interest rates on residential home purchase loans have been officially implemented since October 1; the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized implementing interest rates on October 20; the National Assembly proposed optimizing family housing support and expanding the provident fund withdrawal scenario simultaneously on October 23; on the supply side, it is clear that newly sold land will prioritize existing housing sales in principle, and form a combination punch with revitalizing existing vacant land, promoting urban renewal, and independent renewal of old housing. Local level implementation rules have already been implemented in 17 cities. A combination of policies linked to supply and demand, if sales elimination and financing improvements are gradually realized, will help restore the bidding capacity and willingness of housing enterprises to bid.
Taken together, the focus of the subsequent land market is on three aspects: first, whether the scale of land promotion and plot quality in core cities at the end of the year can reproduce the spot-high popularity of high-value plots; second, whether interest rates for housing purchases expand to improved demand and form a synergy with stock revitalization and urban renewal; and third, the execution caliber of newly sold land prioritizes existing housing sales, and its marginal impact on housing companies' capital occupation and willingness to acquire land. Investment confidence in the land market is expected to gradually recover, but the pace of recovery will still show clear divisions between cities and regions.
