Pre-market highlights
1. Intel's fourth quarter guidance fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell 28.58%, the biggest one-day decline in more than 40 years
Type: Market
Emotional impact: negative
On October 30, Intel's third-quarter revenue was 16.5 billion US dollars, up 21% year on year, but it is expected that non-GAAP earnings per share for the fourth quarter will be only 0.25 US dollars, gross margin will drop to 38% from 44.1% in the third quarter, PC business revenue will drop 5% year on year, and the company's stock price fell 28.58% on the same day, the biggest one-day decline in more than 40 years. Chip stocks fell sharply at the same time, with SanDisk falling more than 13%, Qualcomm falling more than 11%, AMD falling more than 10%, and ARM falling more than 9%. Intel's five-year bond default protection costs once rose to 127.9 basis points per year, a record single-day increase and absolute average. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2% on the same day, the biggest drop since June.
2. The Central Bank and the Securities Regulatory Commission convened a meeting of major banks today to study and optimize stock repurchases to increase holdings and reloans
Type: macro
Emotional impact: positive
According to the Financial Services Association, the central bank will convene a meeting with the General Financial Supervisory Authority and the Securities Regulatory Commission today to study and optimize policies to repurchase stocks and increase refinancing; previously, some securities companies and fund companies have received notices to study and promote the use of tools to support the capital market. The Financial Services Association reporter also learned from relevant sources that a large state-owned bank recently plans to add additional loan lines for share repurchases and increase holdings to two central enterprises, China Guoxin and China Chengtong. The additional amount alone may reach 100 billion yuan.
3. Starting today, the central bank will launch an overnight reverse repurchase bidding operation with an interest rate of 1.25% every working day
Type: macro
Mood effect: neutral
The central bank announced that starting November 2, it will launch overnight reverse repurchase tenders every weekday, using fixed interest rates and volume tenders. Currently, the operating interest rate is 1.25%; the 7-day reverse repurchase was adjusted to fixed quantity, interest rate tenders, and multiple price wins, mainly during the tax period and the end of the month. Temporary positive/reverse repurchases, repurchase tools for overseas central banks, etc. that were originally based on the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate were all changed to add and subtract points on the basis of overnight reverse repurchase interest rates, and the margin of addition and subtraction points remained unchanged. After the adjustment, the daily operation of the open market is mainly overnight varieties. The 7-day variety refund is a supplementary tool during the tax period and at the end of the month.
4. Global DRAM supply is short, Changxin Technology's net profit for the third quarter was 54.435 billion yuan, reversing year-on-year losses
Type: industry
Emotional impact: positive
Changxin Technology (688825.SH) announced that revenue for the third quarter was 118.714 billion yuan, up 613.18% year on year, and net profit to mother was 54.435 billion yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into profit; revenue for the first three quarters was 269.024 billion yuan and net profit to mother of 132.04 billion yuan. The company said that the change in performance was mainly due to a shortage of global DRAM products. Product sales volume and sales prices rose sharply, compounded by a drop in unit costs, and a sharp rise in product gross profit. The company also revealed during the third quarter results conference that the sixth-generation process technology platform based on the 4F² architecture has completed engineering sample verification.
Investment calendar
November 2 to November 5 2026 “Internet Light” Expo (Jiaxing)
Institutional views
1. Cathay Pacific Haitong: The Federal Reserve “hawks suspended” in October, and it is likely that interest rates will still be raised by 25BP in December. It is difficult for inflation to decline smoothly in the short term.
2. SDIC Securities: Last week, the nine broad base moving averages were still all bearish. Pressure was sold or not actually cleared, and recovery from the overrun was accumulating.
3. CITIC Securities: Proposes four types of configuration ideas: steady returns, interpretation of expectations, falling overseas interest rates, increasing the popularity of the racetrack, and clarifying the chips.
Positive and negative outlook
1. The US midterm elections will be held on November 3
Type: Hot Market Discussion
CITIC Securities: Optimistic about the possibility of a rebound in US stocks in technology after the midterm elections, suggests semiconductor hardware as the primary direction.
2. China's financial data for October will be released soon
Type: Agency Hot Reviews
Huafu Securities: It is expected to add 1.09 trillion yuan in social finance in October, an increase of 269.5 billion yuan over the previous year. The social finance growth rate is 7.16%, and an additional 110 billion yuan in loans of RMB 110 billion.
3. Shenzhen APEC Informal Leaders' Meeting was held from November 18 to 19
Type: Policy Focus
Huafu Securities: On the economic and trade side, it is worth looking forward to the implementation of suspension arrangements for tariffs and related restrictions, tax cuts on non-sensitive products, and the promotion of agricultural products and Boeing aircraft purchases.
Announcement Express
Positive announcements
1. Hengtong Optoelectronics: The chairman proposed a repurchase, with a total repurchase capital of 100 million yuan to 200 million yuan
2. Societe Generale Yinxi: Four directors and executives including the chairman plan to increase their holdings by 40,000 shares each, for a total of 160,000 shares
3. Fulongma: Pre-bid for 2 sanitation service projects in October, with a total contract amount of 224 million yuan
Negative announcements
1. Aojing Medical: Received a notice from the Securities Regulatory Commission to file a case, suspected of falsely recording financial data such as regular reports
2. ST Co-operation: Received a notice from the Securities Regulatory Commission to file a case, suspected of illegal disclosure of information
3. Longpan Technology: Terminated the 80,000-ton iron phosphate precursor project and originally intended to invest about 500 million yuan
Overseas markets
The three major US stock indices collectively closed down on October 30. The Dow fell 1.09%, the S&P 500 fell 1.82%, and the NASDAQ fell 2.86%. In October, the NASDAQ fell 5.3%, and the Dow rose 1.7%. The reduction in Intel's performance guidelines raised concerns about the return on AI financing. Chip stocks declined across the board. Within the sector, TSMC fell more than 5%, Nvidia fell 4.08%, and the Big Seven collectively fell. On the China side, Livermore's China Securities Leading Index closed down 2.87%, Sun Moon Light Investment Holdings fell 11.3%, and Huirong Technology fell 8.08%.