The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that GLP-1 drugs are in a parallel stage of demand expansion and product iteration. There is still huge room for commercialization in the global market, and domestic sales and overseas market expansion are expected to jointly drive enterprise growth. 1) Domestic market: optimistic about companies with cost, stable supply and hospital coverage advantages in the sugar reduction sector, and new domestic drugs that have entered medical insurance and have a first-mover advantage; in the weight loss field, optimistic about companies with both product differences and commercialization capabilities; 2) US market: optimistic about innovative drug companies with differentiated clinical evidence, global development capabilities, and overseas commercialization cooperation; focus on generic drug companies with outstanding cost and channel supply advantages; 3) Emerging markets: optimistic about rapid registration progress, mature local channel cooperation, and stable supply.
Orient Securities's main views are as follows:
China: Sugar reduction depends on admission, weight loss depends on differences
In 2025, domestic sales of GLP-1 drugs will reach 13.7 billion yuan, 26H1 will reach 11.1 billion yuan, and the scale of out-of-hospital sales has already surpassed that of hospitals. Simeglutide and tirpotide still occupy a leading position. The rapid release of mast peptides reflects the strong response of the out-of-hospital market to innovative products. Applications for new improved drugs and generic drugs with simeglutide are intensive, and oral small-molecule, multi-target, and ultra-long-lasting products are also being promoted at an accelerated pace, and subsequent competition will further differentiate. The bank believes that the in-hospital sugar reduction market places more importance on medical insurance coverage, hospital access, and continuous supply, and companies with advantages in these areas are expected to continue to expand their share; the out-of-hospital weight loss market places more value on efficacy, tolerability, convenience of administration and price, and companies with both product differences and promotion capabilities have more potential.
US: Giants lead, innovation opens up incremental growth
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate with their brands, payment access and supply systems, and competition has extended from injectable products to oral products. The sales scale of GLP-1 drugs in the US is still expanding, but the growth rate is slower than before. Subsequent multi-target, ultra-long-lasting, and AMYR pipelines will further enrich treatment options. The bank believes that giants have an established commercialization base to help promote new products, while other companies need to establish clinical positioning by improving efficacy, tolerability, or ease of administration. In the domestic pipeline, Hengrui Pharmaceutical's repropotide is progressing rapidly. It has advanced from Kailera to overseas Phase III, and is expected to compete in the US market.
Emerging markets: Broad space, domestic formulations go overseas faster
There are many T2D and obesity patients in emerging markets. Demand for GLP-1 drugs continues to grow, and differences in payment capacity and competitive landscape provide different commercialization opportunities. India's simeglutide patent has expired, and payment capacity is low, the supply of generic products is rapidly increasing, and price and channel competition is deepening; Gan Li Pharmaceutical has reached a cooperation with Lupin in the Indian market for bovenglutide, which is expected to form a differentiated position. Brazil has formed a large mature molecular market. Rizuximeglutide has been declared for listing and is expected to meet demand through competitive pricing; Yinnoisupaglutide α has also submitted a marketing application, which is expected to seek differentiated market space with accumulated domestic clinical application data and ultra-long-term drug administration. Saudi Arabia's high health spending provides considerable space for both new drugs and generic drugs. Hanyu Simeglutide has already declared the T2D listing and is expected to be the first to be released.
Risk Alerts
Risk of failure in innovative drug development; risk of increased market competition; risk of commercialization of innovative drugs, etc.