VICI Properties (VICI) put fresh numbers on the table with its third quarter 2026 earnings, updating investors on guidance, dividends, a new buyback plan, and key tenant exposure.
Despite the fresh guidance and capital return plans, VICI Properties’ momentum has been mixed, with a 1 month share price return of about 8% but a year to date share price decline of roughly 13%. Over a longer horizon, total shareholder return has been modest, with about flat 3 year performance and an 8.6% gain over 5 years. This suggests investors are weighing higher income and buybacks against changing views on risk and growth potential.
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VICI Properties now trades above recent lows yet below many valuation estimates, with richer income and fresh buybacks in play. Does that payoff still favor buyers once you line it up against the risks?
Most Popular Narrative: 42% Undervalued
On the most followed valuation work, VICI Properties is framed as worth $41.86 per share versus the recent $24.46 close, which creates a wide gap that income investors are trying to interpret.
Given the heavy focus of R.E.I.T.s in rewarding their shareholders with dividend payouts, and VICI paying around ~70% of its Free Cash Flow in dividends, we will value the company using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) with a variable approach, given the ability the company still has of growing its dividends above economy growth rate.
Using this valuation method we can extrapolate that VICI is undervalued given that its current price of 26 dollars is well below the P10. From this we can say that there is more than ~90% probability of VICI being undervalued.
See why 19 investors see VICI Properties as 42% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $41.86 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the VICI Properties story can be knocked off course if tenant health weakens or if higher funding costs squeeze returns from new real estate deals.
Find out about the key risks to this VICI Properties narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed feelings on VICI Properties so far. If you want to move from headline impressions to your own conviction, go straight to the underlying 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond VICI Properties?
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