[Editor-in-chief Guan Shi]
There are too many adverse factors in the market. Hong Kong stocks fell a bit harshly last week, including bearishness on technology stocks, US inflation data exceeding expectations, riots in France, and the collapse of the Ningde era.
The US midterm elections have entered a critical moment. It is logical that no major offensive will be launched, but according to US media news on the 24th, the US State Department has updated travel warnings for 13 Middle Eastern countries due to the increased threat of attacks by the Houthis and Iran in Yemen. Trump said he might launch a small-scale “epic fury” operation against Iraq. The variable is whether the escalation between Hussein and Saudi Arabia continues. Another rise in international oil prices is a bad sign.
Peskov: Tripartite negotiations between Russia, the US and Ukraine will begin in Abu Dhabi in early November. It is expected that this news will be difficult to calm oil prices because there is still a long way to go to peace.
There is almost no suspense about the Federal Reserve's October interest rate meeting this week. However, the outlook for December is the main focus. The revealed signals are probably limited, and it needs to be judged by taking into account the US personal consumption expenditure price index for September this Friday.
What is probably getting the most attention is financial data. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel lead US stocks. South Korea's Samsung, SK Hynix, and Japan's Kioxia verify the AI storage boom, and the feedback on how performance is on the market is more direct. Currently, the market is very weak. Although there was capital to protect the market last Friday, a fuss will cause emotional instability, and stable funds will wait until all kinds of news come to fruition before considering entering the market.
Robots are very popular. The quality standard for the first physical intelligence data set will be officially implemented on November 1. Embodied robots will shift from “performance” to reality testing, and many robotics companies have already explored the commercial landscape. The total number of core components of the Optimus robot exceeds 1,000. Among them, the reducer is one of the core links with the greatest flexibility in demand and the highest concentration of value during mass production. However, this topic has been growing for a long time, and the direction of physical AI is expected to continue.
Emergency warning for high-risk PHP vulnerabilities that may impact 70% of global websites, multinational agencies, cloud vendors, etc. The cybersecurity category depends on whether it is fermenting; National Assembly: Optimizing support measures such as fiscal, social security, and housing for families, and striving to stabilize the size of the newly born population. Combining the consumer level with Double Eleven is worth exploring; Kim Jong-un also visited Dandong and inspected automobile factories; Brain-computer interface: Brain-computer interface high-quality data set construction project was launched in Wuhan.
[This week's gold stocks]
Xiaomi (01810)
Adverse factors such as rising costs and beta demand are fully anticipated and marginally improving. The mobile device controls price insurance, and ASP has continuously reached record highs. Recently, the annual gross margin forecast was revised to 1 pct to 9%. In terms of IoT, the last round of national supplements caused the high base window to exit at 26H2. Combined with the acceleration of overseas travel, 26H2 is expected to resume year-on-year growth. On the automotive side, unfavorable expectations of the vehicle beta have been cleared+the new Pengcheng car series is poised to go ahead at 26Q4. The left-hand side expects a rebound in net profit from the report (expected at 26Q4/27Q1).
Narrative enhancements such as AI/chips are highly visible. MiMO's model capabilities have entered the mainstream laboratory echelon, and commercialization has begun through Token Plan/API. Self-developed chips have completed the comprehensive assembly of flagship SoC second-generation, 3D-DRAM end-side inference cards, and high-computing smart driving chips (to be launched next year). The full-stack advantages of end-side AIOS+agent permission+data model+self-developed chips are still significantly underestimated.
[Industry Watch]
Oil tracking: Freight rates have declined, and renters' willingness to ship has increased marginally. Shipowners' willingness to cut prices declined marginally, and immediate capacity was still tight. The Middle East's Oman/US Gulf/West Africa freight rates rebounded steadily, and 1-2 percent of renters delayed pallet entry to suppress freight prices for a short period of time. However, low inventories and high refined oil cracking price differences guarantee that demand for crude oil is still rigid. Effective capacity lacks operational flexibility due to contracts and external process constraints, and the continuation of the high oil transportation boom will exceed expectations.
The Iranian attack lengthened the flight range, and after the high freight rate fell back, the goods were relatively active and drove detours to lengthen the range. First, Iran has continued to step up attacks on merchant ships around the strait, and cargo volume of secret flights to the Strait of Hormuz has been affected; second, recent supply and demand disruptions in local markets have improved, and freight rates on major routes have dropped by nearly 30% from extremely high levels. Third, as the marginal willingness of renters to ship increased, and shipowners' willingness to cut prices gradually decreased, immediate capacity was still tight, and freight rates in the Middle East rebounded steadily by 1-2 percent to 70/64 million US dollars.
Geography has strengthened the medium- to long-term logic of oil transportation, and the continuation of the high oil transportation boom has exceeded expectations. 1) Currently, global crude oil inventories are still low, and the price spread of refined oil products remains high. Although renters have delayed entering the market to suppress freight rates for a short period of time, demand for crude oil shipping is still rigid, and the continuation of the high oil transportation boom will exceed expectations. 2) Geography enhances the medium- to long-term logic of oil transportation. Currently, one-year and three-year leases are still high at 270,000 US dollars/day and 110,000 US dollars/day, reflecting the industry's medium- to long-term optimistic expectations.
It is recommended to focus on COSCO Haineng (01138), COSCO Haifa (02866), etc.
[Data View]
According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of outstanding contracts in the Hang Seng Futures Index (November) was 12,7079, and the net number of outstanding positions was 38,101. Hang Seng Futures refers to the settlement date of November 27, 2026.
The Hang Seng Index is at 23,294 points. The bear market is close to the central axis, and the bullish market below is deviating, and Hong Kong stocks have some momentum to rebound. Last week, the US stock AI bull market experienced the biggest wave of sell-off in the past four years. Capital re-examined the investment logic of huge infrastructure, and there is still significant uncertainty about the US interest rate policy path. The Hang Seng Index is bearish this week.
[Editor's Statement]
Reviewing the latest opinions of more than 10 foreign-funded institutions, including J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Deutsche Bank, Citibank, HSBC, Barclays, Bank of America, and UBS from the end of October to the beginning of November. The current attitude of foreign investors towards Chinese assets is typical of “different minds” - in one sentence: they are tactically careful and defensive, and the strategy is already quiet; they are cautious about short-term profit performance, long-term betting on valuation repair and RMB appreciation; the structure is extremely fragmented and extremely diversified. The code is highly concentrated on the three main lines of AI hardware chain, high dividend defense, and assets benefiting from exchange rates.