Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4528) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.7% to JP¥2,256 in the week after its latest interim results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥233b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.6% to hit JP¥44.20 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Ono Pharmaceutical provided consensus estimates of JP¥461.1b revenue in 2027, which would reflect a noticeable 6.1% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥160, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥460.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥161 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Ono Pharmaceutical
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,513, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ono Pharmaceutical at JP¥3,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,900. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Ono Pharmaceutical's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,513, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ono Pharmaceutical going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Ono Pharmaceutical that you should be aware of.
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