According to Woofun AI, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF experienced a sharp redemption on October 30 (Friday), with a net outflow of 643.3 million US dollars in a single day, the largest single day outflow since June 25 ($696.3 million). As of the same date, the total net asset value of such products was approximately US$98.14 billion, and the cumulative net inflow since its launch in January 2024 was approximately US$56.98 billion.
Judging from the capital flow structure, BlackRock (BLK.US)'s IBIT topped the list with an outflow of US$233.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC outflow of US$201 million, ARKB about US$130 million, GBTC US$53.32 million, and BITB US$25.72 million. None of the Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow on the same day. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current outflow was slightly higher than the US$635.6 million on October 22; the largest single-day net outflow in history was US$1.14 billion on February 25, 2025, which is second only to June 25 in 2026. Decentralized exchange Derive pointed out that the $6.3 billion hacking attack on Binance on Thursday night was a key cause of panic. Traditional investors rushed to withdraw capital to avoid uncertainty, causing demand indicators such as the Coinbase (COIN.US) premium to weaken at the same time.
The more critical variable is multiple resonances at the macro and micro levels in the short term. According to Bitfire's analysis, the US midterm elections on November 3 will determine the regulatory tone for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term; the October non-farm payrolls data released on November 6 may reshape market expectations about the Fed's interest rate path.
Additionally, MSCI finalized new regulations for “non-operating companies” on October 15, and announced 22 potentially affected companies, of which 14 are crypto-related. Strategy (MSTR.US) and Metaplanet are among those to be excluded. The final list will be announced on November 11 and will take effect after closing on November 30. J.P. Morgan estimates that if Strategy is eliminated, it will trigger a passive capital outflow of about $2.8 billion; Strategy said that index fund holdings account for about 3.1% of their basic shares. The passive sell-off could weaken the ability of these two companies to continue to accumulate BTC.
Currently, the market is at a critical point of confidence restoration. The liquidity shock caused by the hacking incident and macroeconomic policy uncertainty are compounded, making institutional capital tend to be defensively allocated in the short term. Following the net outflow of US$4.06 billion in a single month in June, the market once again reacted sharply to systemic risk. Subsequent trends will be highly dependent on election results and the ripple effects brought about by index adjustments.