The Zhitong Finance App learned that on November 2, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the logistics operation analysis for the first three quarters of 2026. In the first three quarters, China's logistics operations showed a development trend of “steady progress, double improvement in quality and efficiency, new kinetic energy, and excellent structure”. Total social logistics has maintained relatively rapid growth and is highly synchronized with economic growth. The demand structure has been upgraded to a new level, and logistics demand in the fields of consumption and new momentum has been released at an accelerated pace. The logistics supply system is becoming more and more perfect, multimodal transport is expanding in volume and quality, the international logistics network is tight, and the industry boom level continues to expand. Policies are being implemented with precision, facility networks are encrypted, technological innovation is being enabled, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP continues to decline, and the results of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society continue to be consolidated. Microeconomic players are moving forward under pressure, resilience is undiminished, and market expectations and operating efficiency have improved marginally.
1. Logistics demand is growing steadily, and momentum is improving towards the new structure
In the first three quarters, the country's total social logistics volume was 280.0 trillion yuan. At comparable prices, the year-on-year increase was 4.9%, and the growth rate fell 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. On a quarterly basis, the first, second, and third quarters grew by 6.2%, 4.4%, and 4.7% respectively. The overall growth rate of logistics demand has been stable since the third quarter. The total cumulative and current growth rate of total social logistics is 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate. The vitality of logistics demand as the core engine of the economic cycle has been released in an orderly manner, and the integration and innovation of the industrial chain supply chain has consolidated the foundation of resilience, further broken through blockages in production, distribution, circulation and consumption, and provided solid support for the recovery and improvement of the real economy.
Looking at the demand structure, domestic production and logistics demand is expanding steadily, the import logistics structure is being adjusted, and the potential for people's livelihood and consumer logistics is being released in an orderly manner.
(1) The logistics demand for industrial products is basically stable
Logistics operations in the industrial sector are progressing steadily and are gaining new strength. In the first three quarters, total industrial logistics increased 5.3% year on year. The growth rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the first half of the year. The contribution rate to total social logistics growth reached 78%, and the core pillar of industrial logistics demand was consolidated. From an industry perspective, the leading role of the equipment manufacturing industry and the high-tech manufacturing industry was outstanding. The proportion rose to 37.6% and 18.3% respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were 0.9 and 1.0 percentage points faster than in the first half of the year, respectively. Among them, logistics demand related to integrated circuit manufacturing, spacecraft and launch vehicle manufacturing, and optoelectronic device manufacturing industries increased by 79.2%, 36.2%, and 28.4% respectively, and related logistics demand grew significantly faster than the industrial product average. Looking at the physical volume of industrial logistics, the physical logistics volume of traditional commodities such as crude steel and cement is generally stable. The logistics flow of new products such as smart bracelets, 3D printing equipment, and sensors increased by 77.1%, 62.5%, and 16.4% respectively. The output of intelligent production equipment such as industrial control computers and systems increased by more than 25%, and the pace of industrial logistics demand for new upgrades has accelerated markedly.
(2) Import logistics demand continues the trend of structural adjustment
Imported logistics shows the operating characteristics of “volume reduction, increase in volume, and structural improvement” in the context of a complex and changing external environment. In the first three quarters, the total amount of imported logistics fell 0.2% year on year, down 2.4 percentage points from the first half of the year. The overall demand for physical logistics volume slowed down; during the same period, the import value of goods maintained a relatively rapid increase, reflecting a marked increase in the value per unit of imported goods, and the upgrading of categories towards high added value and high technical content. Judging from the cargo type structure, there is a clear differentiation in the flow of imported goods. The flow of energy resources has slowed down. In the first three quarters, the import flow of crude oil and refined oil products decreased by 15.3% and 21.8%, respectively, while copper ore, concentrate, unwrought copper, and metal products such as copper and steel decreased by 2.9%, 6.5%, and 10.5%, respectively. Electromechanical high-tech products are growing steadily. The import volume of integrated circuits increased by 7.2%, diodes and similar semiconductor devices by 4.1%, and machine tools by 5.8%. The scale of agricultural products has increased. Food imports increased by 9.7%, dried fruits and nuts increased by 2.4%; imports of high-quality consumer goods such as fresh durian, salmon, and olive oil increased 3.3 times, 41.4%, and 28.5%, respectively.
(3) Stable release of demand from units, residents, trade and logistics
With the active implementation of special actions to boost consumption and related measures, the potential for logistics needs of units and residents has been released in an orderly manner. The total logistics volume of units and consumer goods increased 2.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, continuing the steady growth trend. Among them, demand for new types of online consumer logistics showed a good growth trend. In the first three quarters, retail sales of online products increased by 3.8%, and real-time retail transactions maintained double-digit growth; retail sales of wearable smart devices and high-energy efficiency appliances increased by more than 70% and 20% respectively. Online shopping categories such as fresh cold chain food, 3C household appliances, cultural tourism and outdoor activities remained popular, and emerging consumption models increased their momentum on logistics for units and residents. Demand for offline physical commerce and logistics is rising steadily, with retail sales at warehousing member stores and shopping malls increasing by more than 25% and 10% respectively; retail sales of rural consumer goods grew 1.4 percentage points faster than in urban areas. Commercial and rural logistics networks in counties were continuously improved, and logistics demand in the sinking market was being released at an accelerated pace.
(4) Demand for high-end and green logistics is growing strongly
Domestic industrial restructuring is progressing, new quality productivity is being cultivated and expanded, and the effects of logistics demand related to the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of the industrial chain have been shown. In the first three quarters, total logistics from renewable resources increased 3.6% year on year. Green logistics sectors such as low carbon and recycling continued to grow rapidly, and demand for logistics in recycling, transportation, and treatment was strong. In the first three quarters, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60% for 6 consecutive months, and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 7.7 million units; related production flow of lithium-ion power batteries for automobiles increased by 43.5% year on year. Logistics related to artificial intelligence has become a new growth point. Exports of electronic components increased 70% in the first three quarters, smart terminals such as AI glasses and intelligent bionic robots went overseas at an accelerated pace, and the full-chain logistics demand system accelerated.
2. Consolidate the results of cost reduction and efficiency, and steadily improve logistics efficiency
Since this year, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP has been in a downward channel. In the first three quarters, total social logistics costs were 14.8 trillion yuan, up 4.2% year on year, and the growth rate fell 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP was 14.0% in the first quarter and 13.9% in the first half of the year. It fell to 13.8% in the first three quarters, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Based on logistics costs for every 100 yuan of gross domestic product generated, a cumulative reduction of 0.2 percentage points corresponds to savings of more than 210 billion yuan in logistics costs, and cost reduction dividends continue to be released to the real economy.
International commodity prices rose markedly during the same period, and the national industrial producer ex-factory price (PPI) rose 2.3% year on year in the first three quarters. As fuel costs rise throughout the industrial chain, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP has declined month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating that structural factors such as transportation structure optimization, logistics network efficiency improvement, and organizational model improvement since this year have to some extent hedged the pressure on supply chains and logistics costs brought about by rising upstream prices. More specifically:
From a structural perspective, the triple optimization of the economy, transportation, and demand drives structural cost reduction. In terms of economic structure, the share of manufacturing industry rose steadily in the first three quarters. The share of high-tech manufacturing increased by 1.6 percentage points, and the contribution rate of new industrial momentum exceeded 50%. The physical volume of logistics corresponding to a unit of GDP declined and the value of goods increased, reducing the intensity of logistics demand to a certain extent. In terms of demand structure, the internal structure of industrial products, imports, and total logistics for units and residents is steadily improving, and demand in key areas is shifting from bulk raw materials to high technology, high added value, and consumer products. In terms of transportation structure, the transportation structure optimization trend continued in the first three quarters. Overall, freight turnover grew faster than freight volume in the first three quarters. The average transportation distance was lengthened, and demand for long-distance and cross-regional transportation increased. Looking at the main modes of transportation, railway, highway, and water freight turnover increased by 5.7%, 2.9%, and 6.0% year on year, respectively. The growth rate of railway and water transport turnover was 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points higher than the average cargo turnover, and 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points higher than the average cargo turnover. The two modes of transportation with relatively low unit costs grew faster. Together, the two accounted for 69.4% of cargo turnover. Compared with the previous period and the same period, the main position of low-cost and green transportation methods was stable, and the main position of transportation structure adjustment was clear. The triple structure was optimized in the same direction, driving the ratio of transportation costs to GDP down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year in the first three quarters.
In terms of organizational methods, the level of logistics integration and networking has been steadily improving. In terms of network collaboration, multiple modes of railway, water transport, and road transportation have been improved collaboratively. Railway statistics for the first three quarters show that container iron and water intermodal traffic and railway and public intermodal traffic continued to grow year-on-year in the first three quarters. The role of multimodal transport development alliances gradually became apparent, and cross-modal matching efficiency improved. In terms of logistics organization models, the supply of integrated logistics in the supply chain grew rapidly. Key survey data showed that in the first three quarters, the number of supply chain contract orders for key logistics companies increased 19.8% year on year, and integrated logistics business revenue increased 18.7% year on year. Enterprises actively transformed into value creation partners, helping to slow down inventory occupancy and turnover costs. Industrial enterprises above the industrial side reported that the sales rate of products linked to production and marketing rebounded 0.2 percentage points from month to month in September, and the average inventory turnover index on the logistics side rebounded 1 percentage point, showing that while logistics organization methods were being upgraded and expanded, the industrial and logistics cycle accelerated, the inventory removal trend continued, and logistics turnover efficiency improved. The ratio of storage costs to GDP for the first three quarters was basically the same as the previous year.
Looking at the basic network, the construction of logistics networks is progressing at an accelerated pace, and the efficiency of connectivity is constantly increasing. Investment scale expansion structure improvement. In January-September, investment in logistics-related fixed assets such as transportation, warehousing and postal services increased 1.9% year-on-year, while investment in air transport and water transport increased 13.8% and 13.5% respectively. The investment structure improved, and growth in key areas was outstanding. Key projects are progressing at an accelerated pace. The Pinglu Canal was officially opened to traffic in September, opening up a new river-sea intermodal transport channel from the southwest region to ASEAN; the new Three Gorges Water Transport Corridor project progressed, and the functions of logistics hubs in many places were upgraded at an accelerated pace. The international logistics network continues to be tightened, and cross-border transportation capacity is expanding. In the first three quarters, a total of 16,000 China-Europe trains were operated, an increase of 15% over the previous year; a total of 11,000 trains were operated in Central Asia, an increase of 2% over the previous year. The total cargo and mail volume of international routes was 3.553 million tons, an increase of 12.1% over the previous year. 130 new international air cargo routes were opened, all international freighter routes were expanded, the radiation range of international logistics channels continued to expand, and supply strongly supported the increase in scale. Major projects and hub networks are collaborating, and the overall connectivity of logistics infrastructure networks and the ability to support the industrial chain supply chain have been further enhanced.
In terms of technology and equipment, digital intelligence and green transformation have unleashed efficiency improvements. Since this year, the level of intelligence, greening, and digitalization of logistics equipment has been steadily improving. Automated three-dimensional warehouses, intelligent sorting robots, unmanned forklifts, and green equipment are being promoted and applied at an accelerated pace. A number of leading express delivery companies have invested in more than 1,000 unmanned vehicles, and labor costs for sorting and terminal delivery have decreased. In the first three quarters, the cumulative penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 38%. New energy logistics vehicles, lightweight trailers, etc. reduced energy consumption per unit of transportation, directly hedging the upward pressure on fuel prices. Digital scenarios such as intelligent forecasting, route optimization, inventory management, and load matching are rapidly gaining popularity. In the first three quarters, the digital transformation investment of key logistics enterprises increased by about 10% year-on-year, the dynamic allocation capacity of logistics resources was enhanced, and the efficiency results of technology investment were initially evident.
Looking at policies and systems, policy supply and financial security are being strengthened in synergy. This year is a critical year for the “Action Plan to Effectively Reduce Logistics Costs for the Whole Society”. In terms of planning and deployment, with the approval of the State Council in August, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the “Logistics Network Construction Implementation Plan”, which deployed 17 key tasks in 7 areas. Logistics network construction progressed further from top-level planning to full implementation. In terms of financial security, investment in key areas such as the “Liuzhang Network” and integrated three-dimensional transportation facilities will exceed 7 trillion yuan during the year. Recently, the country has also revitalized the 250 billion yuan local government special debt balance limit to support the expansion of effective investment in key areas such as the “Liuzhang Network” construction. The networked layout has reduced the average transportation distance and transit links, and promoted a shift in logistics cost reduction from individual policy support to systematic facility and system construction.
3. Logistics supply and demand are well adapted, and service prices are rising steadily
Since this year, the logistics supply system has been improving, effectively supporting the needs of the economic cycle. In the first three quarters, the total revenue of the logistics industry continued to expand. In the first three quarters, the total revenue of the national logistics industry reached 11.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year. The logistics industry sentiment level is good. In the first three quarters, the average logistics industry sentiment index was 50.3%. Logistics supply and demand are well adapted, service prices in key areas are rising steadily, and the operation of micro-entities is showing signs of improvement.
(1) Prices of logistics services rebounded steadily amid fluctuations
In the first three quarters, logistics service prices generally showed a “low level, stabilized and moderately rebounded” trend. Supported by the “anti-internal volume” policy and traditional peak season demand, there were positive changes in price changes and the competitive pattern in different segments. The pattern of supply and demand in the road transport market has improved. In September, China's road logistics freight index was 105.1 points, up 0.14% month-on-month and 0.06% year-on-year. Vehicle and LTL vehicle indices all rebounded month-on-month, supporting a steady recovery in the freight rate index. The effectiveness of the express delivery service “reverse internal volume” has been consolidated. In September, express ticket revenue rose 3.5% year on year and increased by about 0.15 yuan month on month. Since the third quarter, industry prices have steadily rebounded month-on-month, and competition for express delivery services has accelerated from “price for quantity” to “sharp rise in quality and price.” Water transport, domestic trade, coastal trade, and foreign trade consolidation trends diverge. The coastal market was affected by factors such as seasonal decline in demand for coal and other commodities, high coal prices suppressed terminal procurement, etc., and the monthly average value of the coastal (bulk) composite freight rate index in September was 1113.96 points, down 8.2% month on month, but the cumulative average for the first three quarters was 1156.5 points, up 13.2% year on year; the export container market performance was stable, with freight rates on most routes rising. The average value of China's export container comprehensive freight rate index in September was 1887.6 points, up 2.8% from the previous month. The cumulative average for the first three quarters was 1476.8 points. 19.4%. The overall service price level in key areas improved.
(2) Marginal improvement in the operating conditions of micro entities
Despite facing a complex external environment, logistics microactors have shown strong resilience, and business conditions have improved marginally. Looking at the industry sentiment, the China Logistics Industry Sentiment Index (LPI) in September was 51.5%. It has been in the expansion range for 5 consecutive months. This is mutually confirmed by the fact that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index has returned above the boom and dry line, and logistics business activities tend to be active. In terms of revenue and costs, the revenue of key logistics companies increased 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, up 0.6 percentage points from January-August; the cost of key logistics companies per 100 yuan in operating revenue was 95 yuan, down 0.5 yuan and 0.4 yuan from the same period last year and January-August, respectively, and the operating efficiency of enterprises showed marginal improvement. Looking at segments, express delivery, cross-border logistics, etc. are clearly picking up, and leading companies are speeding up the transformation from traditional transportation and warehousing service providers to integrated logistics integrators.
Overall, in the first three quarters of 2026, China's logistics operations showed a “steady and progressive, new and improved” development trend. The overall synergy between social logistics demand and economic growth, and the demand structure has been upgraded to a new level. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP continues to decline, the results of reducing costs and increasing efficiency have been consolidated, and new momentum such as multimodal transport, digital intelligence, and greening has accelerated growth.
In the fourth quarter, positive factors in logistics operations accumulated. Looking at demand, with the arrival of peak e-commerce seasons such as “Double Eleven” and production rushing up at the end of the year, logistics demand is expected to be released centrally. Sectors such as e-commerce express delivery and shipping will usher in a traditional peak season, and the total amount of social logistics may rise further. Looking at expectations, the expected index of business activity in the logistics industry in September was 56.2%, up 1.8 percentage points from month to month. The fixed asset investment completion index rebounded 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and was in a high boom range for many months. The willingness of enterprises to invest increased simultaneously with market expectations. From a policy perspective, inventory policies and incremental policies work together. Local government special debt balance limits support the construction of the “six networks” to accelerate the formation of physical workload, and the effects of various economic and logistics industry policies in the early stages will continue to show. Judging comprehensively, logistics operations in the fourth quarter are expected to continue the trend of steady progress and double improvement in quality and efficiency. Modern logistics will use high-quality development to provide a strong guarantee for the recovery of the real economy and the achievement of economic and social development goals throughout the year.