Cameco Corporation (TSE:CCO) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Unfortunately, Cameco delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CA$619m were 18% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CA$0.10 missed estimates by 67%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Cameco after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Cameco from 15 analysts is for revenues of CA$3.97b in 2027. If met, it would imply a meaningful 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 227% to CA$2.98. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$4.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.98 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Cameco
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CA$174. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Cameco analyst has a price target of CA$190 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$134. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Cameco shareholders.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Cameco's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Cameco's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cameco. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Cameco going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Cameco is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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