05:52 AM EST, 11/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg adjusted its price target and earnings forecasts for Safran (SAF.PA), citing the French aerospace and defense group's "surprise" midterm capital expenditure guidance update alongside its third-quarter results. "The raised guidance for capex as a share of revenue - to equate to c6% of revenue over the medium term, versus c4% previously - drives a headline c11% cut to our 2027-28 FCF forecasts. The increased investment is required for defence capacity expansion, and to meet the civil aerospace production rate plans at Airbus [AIR.PA, AIR.F, AIR.MC] and Boeing [BCO.F]. We estimate that defence capex over 2027-28 may increase by c150% versus prior expectations, assuming 50% of the incremental capex is devoted to this end-market. Safran guides to doubling the revenue in its Electronics & Defense business (c5% of revenue in 2026) over 2025-30. The significant increase in capex bodes well for sustained growth in defence following 2030, although the surprise increase caught many off guard and is greater in magnitude than we had expected," analysts said Monday. Accordingly, the research firm increased its medium-term capex forecasts to reflect management's new guidance, while lowering its full-year 2026 recurring operating income estimate by 1.7% to account for the low-triple-digit million-euro headwind caused by the delayed launch of the LEAP-1B Maverick blade. Berenberg also trimmed the stock's price target to 340 euros from 400 euros and left its buy rating unchanged.

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