Pre-market market trends
1. On November 2 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.61%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.54%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.80%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.21%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.05%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.33%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.28%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil futures fell 4.50% to $99.43 per barrel; Brent crude futures fell 4.32% to $108.53 per barrel.
Market news
After the big sell-off in technology stocks, US stocks are entering another critical week: midterm elections, big earnings reports, and non-farmers take turns. The financial reports of major US technology stocks fell short of expectations one after another, triggering a sharp sell-off in the technology sector, but the market preferred to view this as a “correction of expectations” rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. This week's market focus immediately turned to the US midterm elections, October's non-farm payrolls report, and financial reports on major stocks including Apple (AAPL.US); at the same time, trust repair and regulatory trends in the crypto industry have also become new concerns after Binance was hit by the biggest crypto hacking incident in history.
The US-Iran negotiations have now broken through, and international oil prices have fallen below 100 US dollars. Iranian Foreign Minister Alagzi said on November 1 that Iran has agreed on a “two-day plan” — after the US fulfills the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will resume navigation the next day, and negotiations between Iran and the US will resume; Qatar and other mediators are pushing to reduce the period to less than five days. Earlier, Netanyahu urged Trump to “resume the war against Iran immediately” after the midterm elections, but Trump is inclined to allow negotiations to fully commence. Progress in negotiations eased concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply. WTI crude oil fell below 100 US dollars/barrel in the intraday period, and Brent fell nearly 4%, offloading risky assets from inflationary burdens.
OPEC+ production remained unchanged in December, with no supply-side increases for the time being. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced on November 1 that the seven major OPEC+ oil producers decided to keep their current crude oil production unchanged in December. The media said that oil producers are still dealing with export disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and will not make further policy adjustments until next year. Each oil producer needs to complete a capacity assessment in the fourth quarter to determine the 2027 quota. OPEC+ increased production month by month from April to September this year, and suspended production increases in October. The resolution to maintain the status quo and the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran jointly reduced the risk premium on oil prices, but the repeated situation in the Middle East is still a core variable.
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast, warning of increased supply risks. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the end of this year and 2027 due to rising risks faced by crude oil supply. As the war in the Middle East continued for several months, Goldman Sachs joined the ranks of other banks and raised the oil price forecast. Analysts led by Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby pointed out in a report that the price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach 105 US dollars per barrel in December, higher than the previous forecast of 90 US dollars; the average price for the whole of next year is expected to be 88 US dollars per barrel, 10% higher than the previous forecast. Analysts also raised the price forecast for WTI crude oil.
The US midterm elections are approaching, and voting on Tuesday raises liquidity and policy risks. The US midterm elections will be held on November 3 (Tuesday) local time. Markets are concerned about the subsequent impact of congressional control ownership on fiscal, regulatory, and industry policies. Analysts pointed out that the election injected headlines and liquidity risks between the RBA decision and the opening of the market on Wednesday, but did not add any new scheduled data. In the last full trading week before the election, investors tend to lower their directional bets. Fluctuations in the technology and high beta sectors or amplify election uncertainty, and the election itself became a source of short-term disturbance.
The AI financing race spread to Japan, and the scale of issuance of yen bonds reached a record of 16 billion US dollars. According to reports, as AI hyperscale cloud service providers set off a global financing boom, overseas companies and institutions are beginning to seek financial support from Japanese investors. Statistics from Daiwa Securities show that from April to September this year, the scale of Japanese yen bonds issued by foreign entities reached a record high. The total amount of yen bonds issued by foreign institutions in Japan and yen bonds issued overseas was about 2.5 trillion yen (about 15.9 billion US dollars), an increase of 160% over the previous year, exceeding the 2.1 trillion yen record set from October 2018 to March 2019.
Individual stock news
Demand is resilient ahead of the holiday season, and Estée Lauder (EL.US) raised its annual performance forecast. Estée Lauder raised its annual sales and profit expectations on Monday, betting that its high-end skincare and fragrance brands will remain resilient in demand until the holiday season arrives, while the CEO's year-long transformation initiatives are driving growth. Despite economic uncertainty, consumers continued to be keen to buy skincare and fragrance products, which boosted the company's luxury skincare and fragrance sales. As part of CEO Beauty Reimagined's strategy, Estée Lauder has been focusing on accelerating innovation, expanding new channels and markets, using artificial intelligence for consumer insight and marketing, increasing consumer-facing investments, streamlining operations, and saving costs through job cuts. The company expects organic sales to grow by 4% to 5.5% in the 2027 fiscal year, which is higher than the previous forecast of 3% to 5%. The company also expects adjusted earnings per share for the full year to be between $3.20 and $3.45, higher than the previous forecast of $3.10 to $3.35.
Apple (AAPL.US) released its fourth fiscal quarter earnings report after the market, and the debut of the new CEO became the focus. Apple will announce the results for the fourth fiscal quarter of the 2026 fiscal quarter ending the end of September after the US stock market on Monday, and hold the first earnings call since the new CEO John Turners took over Cook. The market unanimously expects revenue of about US$113.4 billion (+10.7% YoY) and adjusted earnings per share of about US$1.99-2.00 (+8% — 11% YoY); iPhone revenue is expected to be around US$56.5 billion (+15% YoY), and service revenue of about US$31.6 billion. The company surpassed Nvidia ($4.93 trillion) with a market capitalization of 5.03 trillion US dollars to reclaim the “stock king” position last Friday, but the rise in memory prices eroded hardware gross margins, as well as guidance during the holiday season, is the biggest highlight of this financial report.
Musk: It is expected that by the end of 2028, space AI computing power will increase on a scale that exceeds that of the ground. Elon Musk predicts that by the end of 2028, the monthly increase in AI computing power deployed in space may exceed that added on the ground, and further widen the gap in 2029. Earlier, Sequoia Capital partner Shawn Maguire predicted that SpaceX (SPCX.US) revenue would increase from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731 billion in 2028, but this forecast faces supply chain and policy uncertainties. Musk said that outsiders may have seriously underestimated SpaceX's capital efficiency.
Tesla (TSLA.US) saw a sharp increase in new car registrations in the Nordic region in October. According to data provided by the Swedish automobile industry organization “Mobility Sweden”, the Norwegian data statistics agency OFV, and the Danish vehicle data platform Bilstatistik.dk, Tesla's registration volume in Sweden surged 248% in October, 131% in Norway, and 34% in Denmark. This rebound was due to a lower comparison base for the same period last year, rising fuel prices, government incentives, and continued growth in electric vehicle demand. Registration figures for the UK and Germany, Europe's two largest car markets, are expected to be released later this week. Tesla said earlier that the company's backlog of passenger car orders at the end of the third quarter reached its highest level in four years.
Anthropic (ANT.US) plans to sell shares worth 3.5 billion US dollars to Japanese investors in an IPO. According to the documents, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic will sell shares worth up to 552.9 billion yen (about 3.5 billion US dollars) to Japanese investors during the US listing process. According to the document, the funds raised by issuing new shares to Japanese investors will be used to supplement working capital and pay operating expenses and capital expenses. The documents did not disclose the size or valuation of this IPO. Reuters previously reported that Anthropic's valuation discussed by some investors was around $1.5 trillion.
Alphabet (GOOGL.US) has launched the second round of Eurobond issuance this year. Google's parent company Alphabet has launched its second Eurobond issuance this year. The plan is to issue it in seven parts. This is another recent step for major technology companies to raise capital for artificial intelligence investments. According to a source familiar with the matter, Alphabet's current bond issuance period ranges from 2 to 19 years. The initial price guide for the shortest term fixed interest rate bonds is about 60 basis points higher than the medium-term swap rate, and the interest rate spread for the longest term bonds is about 205 to 210 basis points. Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank are responsible for issuing the bonds, which are expected to be priced late Monday.
Is Meta (META.US) collaborating with Chinese companies to develop humanoid robots? Fourier responded. Recently, it was reported that Meta has collaborated with Chinese robotics company Fourier to create a humanoid robot prototype within about three months, and both parties are already developing a second version. The robot is called Max inside Meta, weighs around 48 kg, and is used for internal research and experiments. Li Chenmiller, Meta's vice president of robotics products, also spent almost two months at Fourier's factory in Shanghai. In response, Gu Jie, founder and CEO of Fourier, replied that it is not convenient to respond yet.
Key economic data and event forecasts
22:45 Beijing time: Final US SPGI manufacturing PMI for October
23:00 Beijing time: US ISM manufacturing PMI for October
00:15 Beijing time the next day: 2027 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered a speech
Performance Forecast
Tuesday morning: Apple, Palantir (PLTR.US), Onsemi Semiconductors (ON.US), Roku (Roku.US)
Tuesday pre-market: Philips (PHG.US), Shopify (SHOP.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), Marathon Crude Oil (MPC.US), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US)