Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (BMV:TLEVISACPO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.0% to Mex$7.80 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of Mex$14b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at Mex$0.30, missing estimates by 6.2%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Grupo Televisa's eleven analysts is for revenues of Mex$55.5b in 2027, which would reflect a discernible 3.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with Grupo Televisa forecast to report a statutory profit of Mex$1.26 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$55.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$1.26 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Grupo Televisa
The consensus price target fell 7.0% to Mex$13.14, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Grupo Televisa, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$22.00 and the most bearish at Mex$9.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would also point out that the forecast 2.7% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2027 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 6.7% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Grupo Televisa to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Grupo Televisa's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Televisa. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Grupo Televisa going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Grupo Televisa that you need to be mindful of.
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