As of noon ET on Monday, prediction markets continue to expect Democrats to win both the Senate and House in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Kalshi sees a 74% chance of a Democratic Senate, while Polymarket has 73% odds. Both give Democrats a 94% chance of taking control of the House by winning about 234 seats.

While the overall odds have changed little since Sunday, predictions are solidifying in the favor of Democratic candidates in several key races.

Democrats Favored in Senate Polls and Prediction Markets

Prediction market participants see a Democratic majority of at least 53 seats in the upper chamber. Here’s what the predictions and the polls are showing in key races.

• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in polling averages 49.6% to 47.8%. Kalshi gives Peltola a 71.3% chance of victory, while Polymarket gives Peltola a 73.5% chance.
• Florida: Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is at 49.6% and Angie Nixon (D) 43.6% in polls. Kalshi has Moody at 85.1% and Polymarket has her at 87.5%, a move of about three points toward Nixon in both since Sunday but still heavily favoring Moody.
• Iowa: Josh Turek (D) is at 47.1% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 46.8%. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have the race too close to call, with both shifting about six to eight points toward Turek since Sunday.
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) leads Sen. Roger Marshall (R) 49.1% to 45.8%. Kalshi gives Hamilton a 62.4% chance of victory, while Polymarket gives him a 61.5% chance. Both had Hamilton at around 51% odds 24 hours ago.
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) leads Sen. Susan Collins (R) 50.8% to 45.8%. Kalshi has Jackson at 72.3%, Polymarket at 74.5%.
• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads Mike Rogers (R) 49.9% to 44.6%. Kalshi has El-Sayed at 78.0%, Polymarket at 79.5%. El-Sayed dipped on both markets Sunday evening after Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers, but El-Sayed has now recovered to his odds from one day ago.
• Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan (D) leads Michele Tafoya (R) 49.1% to 42.7%. Kalshi has Flanagan at 92.8%, Polymarket at 93.6%.
• Mississippi: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) leads Scott Colom (D) 44.6% to 40.4%. Kalshi has Hyde-Smith at 84.2%, Polymarket at 86.5%.
• Nebraska: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) leads independent Dan Osborn, who has Democratic backing, 47.7% to 46.2%. Kalshi has Ricketts at 70.0%, Polymarket at 71.5%.
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Sen. Jon Husted (R) 48.2% to 45.3%. Kalshi has Brown at 70.3%, Polymarket 72.5.
• South Carolina: Sen. Darline Graham (R) leads Annie Andrews (D) 46.0% to 45.6%. Kalshi has Graham at 68.0%, Polymarket 69.0%.
• Texas: James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) 49.5% to 45.7%. Kalshi has Talarico at 75.0%, Polymarket 75.5%, both shifting five points in Talarico’s favor since Sunday.

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.